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ESTACION DE PACKET RADIO - BUENOS AIRES (GF05OM)
BOLETINES INFORMATIVOS PROGRAMADOS (BIP)
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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202
AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GREAT
LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC AS WELL AS A SMALL PART OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms posing a risk for isolated
damaging gusts are expected to develop across parts of the upper
Ohio Valley, lower Great Lakes region, and Mid Atlantic Thursday
afternoon into the evening. A couple of severe storms with damaging
wind and large hail may also occur from northeast North Dakota into
northwest Minnesota.
...Great Lakes through Ohio Valley into the Middle Atlantic...
Diabatic heating of the moist surface layer should result in moderate instability over much of this region during the afternoon with MLCAPE
from 1500-2000 J/kg but with weak mid-level lapse rates. A cold
front will accompany a weakening upper trough through the Great Lakes
and OH Valley during the day, providing a focus for thunderstorm
initiation. Other storms will likely develop in the pre-frontal warm
sector including over the higher terrain and in association with a
lee trough over the Middle Atlantic. Wind profiles accompanying the
upper trough will remain relatively weak with 20-30 kt effective bulk
shear supportive of multicells. As low-level lapse rates steepen,
the environment will become supportive of a few locally strong to
damaging wind gusts, and storms may eventually evolve into line
segments or clusters before weakening during the early evening.
...Northeast North Dakota through northwest Minnesota...
A mid-level speed max within the base of a low-amplitude shortwave
trough will move through the northern Plains and upper MS Valley
this afternoon and evening accompanied by a cold front. Dewpoints
will remain generally in the low to mid 60s in the pre-frontal
warm sector, and a plume of steeper (7-7.5 C/km) mid-level lapse
rates will overspread this region supporting 1500 J/kg MLCAPE as
the surface layer warms. Tendency will be for the deeper forcing
for ascent to remain north of the international border which, given
likelihood of a modest capping inversion along eastern periphery of
elevated mixed layer, suggests storm coverage could remain limited. Nevertheless, a belt of stronger flow accompanying the upper jet
will contribute to 45+ kt effective bulk shear supportive of storm
organization including supercells with any storms that manage to
develop. Large hail and damaging wind will be the main threats,
primarily from late afternoon into mid evening.
...Louisiana and southeast Texas coastal regions...
Tropical disturbance over the north central Gulf of Mexico is
forecast to strengthen to a tropical depression today as it moves
in a slow westerly to west northwesterly direction. See latest
advisories from NHC for more information. Low-level vertical shear
within the northern semicircle along the LA coast should undergo
some increase. Storms developing within this environment may produce
locally strong wind gusts along with a low risk for a brief tornado.
Overall threat still appears marginal for this period.
...Southern High Plains...
A few storms will likely develop within the upslope regime over
the higher terrain of NM and spread southeast into the high Plains
of NM and west TX where inverted-V boundary layers will support a
threat for downburst winds from late afternoon through early evening. ..Dial/Wendt.. 07/11/2019
SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150
PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY... A developing hurricane may pose a risk for a
couple of tornadoes across parts of southeastern Louisiana,
southern Mississippi and, perhaps, southwestern Alabama Friday
into Friday night. Otherwise, widely scattered strong storms may
impact a corridor across parts of the northern Plains into the
Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region, as well as portions of the
southern Mid Atlantic Coast region, accompanied by at least some
risk for severe weather.
...Synopsis... Little change to the general large-scale pattern is
expected into and through this period. A broad area of mid-level
subtropical ridging, centered over the southern Rockies, likely
will remain prominent across much of the Great Basin and Southwest,
Rockies and Plains into the middle Mississippi Valley, Friday
through Friday night.
Southeast of this ridging, and west of elongated mid-level ridging
across the subtropical Atlantic, a tropical cyclone is forecast to
intensify into a hurricane over the north central Gulf of Mexico,
to the south of the Louisiana coast.
Meanwhile, within the mid-latitude westerlies, large-scale troughing
may linger over the northeast Pacific, while broadly anticyclonic
flow prevails inland of the Pacific Northwest coast through the
central Canadian/U.S. border vicinity. Ridging across parts of
the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region is expected to become
suppressed by a fairly vigorous short wave trough as it digs across
northern Ontario and the Lake Superior through Lake Huron/Georgian
Bay vicinity. Downstream troughing, initially extending across the
northern through middle Atlantic Seaboard, is forecast to progress
offshore and northeastward through the eastern Canadian provinces.
...North central Gulf coast... Intensification of the tropical
cyclone into a hurricane will be accompanied by sufficient
strengthening of low-level wind fields and shear to support a risk
of tornadoes in associated convective bands, where the boundary
layer has an opportunity to destabilize. This risk probably will
become maximized north and east of the circulation, in the right
front quadrant relative to its slow west-northwestward motion.
This could impact areas inland of the north central Gulf coast
during the daytime hours, but may become focused closer to the
coast Friday night as the center approaches land.
...Mid Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest/Great Lakes... Ahead of
a cold front associated with the Ontario short wave trough, models
indicate that a corridor of stronger surface heating, within a
relatively moist boundary layer, may contribute to moderate to
large CAPE (ranging from 1000-3000+ J/kg) by Friday afternoon.
Although it still appears that much of this region will be displaced
to the south/southwest of the mid-level forcing for ascent, at least
widely scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorm development
is possible. If this occurs, modest northwesterly mid-level flow
may contribute to sufficient shear for organized storms, perhaps
including supercells, posing mainly a risk for severe hail and wind.
...Mid Missouri Valley into northern Rockies... Moistening easterly
near surface flow across the high Plains, near /north of the Black
Hills into areas near/north of the Bighorns, in the presence of
steepening lapse rates, may contribute to moderate CAPE by Friday
afternoon. Perhaps aided by forcing for ascent associated with
subtle perturbations migrating around the northern periphery of the
subtropical ridging, widely scattered thunderstorms may initiate
across the higher terrain. This activity is expected to subsequently
propagate east-southeastward, and eventually become focused along
the mid-level thermal gradient to the north of a plume of capping
elevated mixed-layer air extending into the mid Missouri Valley.
Deep-layer shear, aided by pronounced veering of winds with height
beneath modest westerly mid-level flow, could be sufficient to
support isolated supercells and perhaps one or two small organizing
clusters of storms posing a risk for severe hail and wind.
...Southern Mid Atlantic... Although deep-layer shear may be rather
weak, daytime heating and boundary-layer mixing may contribute
to moderate to large CAPE within surface troughing across North
Carolina and adjacent portions of southern Virginia and northern
South Carolina. This may provide the focus for considerable
thunderstorms development, with thermodynamic profiles conducive to
localized downbursts and strengthening surface cold pools that could
pose a risk for potentially damaging wind gusts Friday afternoon
and evening.
...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind:
5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal
..Kerr.. 07/11/2019
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019
Valid 111200Z - 121200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
UTAH...
...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will remain over the Four
Corners today with monsoonal moisture continuing its northward
push into the Desert Southwest and Great Basin. A very dry
airmass with afternoon RH of 10-15% has been in place for the last
several days helping to further cure heavier fuels. Isolated to
scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the western
periphery of the upper-level ridge across the Mogollon Rim into
the southern/central Utah mountains. Model guidance has been
consistent with subtle shortwave troughs rounding the upper-level
ridge which will support an increase in storm coverage in some
locations. Scattered dry thunderstorms appear most likely to occur in
portions of southern/central Utah. In these highlighted locations,
ERCs have reached near the 90th percentile or greater with 100-hour
fuel moisture now below the 10th percentile. Mid-level moisture
will be high enough for scattered coverage, but very deep and dry
sub-cloud layers should prevent most rainfall from reaching the
surface. Portions of northern Utah may see borderline scattered
coverage of storms, but fuel receptiveness is somewhat more in
question. Farther south, PWAT values of 0.7-0.8 inches will lead
to more of mixed wet/dry storm mode.
..Wendt.. 07/11/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0151 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019
Valid 121200Z - 131200Z
...Synopsis... An upper-level ridge will persist in the Four
Corners region with perhaps slight progression to the east
on D2/Friday. Increasing monsoonal moisture will again lead to
isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorm development within
much of central/northern Arizona, portions of eastern Nevada, and
Utah. Boundary layer moisture will increase slightly across the
highlighted area, though afternoon RH will still fall to 10-20%. A
subtle shortwave or two will help to enhance lift and thunderstorm
coverage across northwest Arizona into central Utah. Potential for
scattered coverage will be highest in these locations. However,
portions of northwest Arizona will likely have received some
wetting rainfall on Thursday with similar potential for wetting
storms on Friday. Consideration was given to adding a scattered dry thunderstorm area for portions of southern/central Utah (similar to
Thursday), but confidence is lowered due to a more shallow sub-cloud layer/higher boundary layer RH.
..Wendt.. 07/11/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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ACHTUNG!!!
Das machine is nicht fur gefingerpoken und mittengrabben. Ist easy schnappen der springenwerk, blowenfusen und corkenpoppen mit spitzensparken. Ist nicht fur gewerken by das dummkopfen. Das rubbernecken sightseeren keepen hands
in das pockets. Relaxen und vatch das blinkenlights!!!
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