ACUS11 KWNS 050220
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050219
SCZ000-GAZ000-NCZ000-TNZ000-050415-

Mesoscale Discussion 2446
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0819 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026

Areas affected...north-central and northeast Georgia into portions
of far western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 050219Z - 050415Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A conditional risk for a brief tornado and/or damaging
wind gust is expected to persist for the next 1 to 2 hours. Both the
magnitude and areal extent of the threat are likely to remain too
small for a watch consideration.

DISCUSSION...A small cluster of thunderstorms has persisted this
evening over far north-central GA, in the vicinity of a diffuse
wedge or warm front with recent intensification noted in volumetric
radar data. The 00Z FFC sounding is likely somewhat representative
of the ambient thermodynamic environment, with a moist boundary
layer and modestly steep midlevel lapse rates contributing to MLCAPE
of 1000-1500 J/kg. However, a relative warm nose centered around 700
mb and poor low-level lapse rates are likely hindering parcel
accelerations to some extent.

On the condition that storms remain surface-based, a low-probability
risk for a brief tornado and/or damaging wind gust may persist for
the next 1 to 2 hours as storms move/develop toward upstate SC,
where stronger low-level and deep-layer shear exists.

..Mead/Guyer.. 11/05/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8wTXZDoXtHMk8OzQdHcIPZEjGVeUbaMtwrEAq85OmivfA1Hh04A_0uTEmzo7TdKmnpkNwI0RuEhqN3xTJkNsWCLz--k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...

LAT...LON 34608505 34958478 35038432 35018381 34928309 34668274
34318281 34008326 34438457 34608505

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)