ACUS11 KWNS 041843
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041842
SCZ000-GAZ000-042115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2443
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2026

Areas affected...parts of northern Georgia into adjacent Upstate
South Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 041842Z - 042115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Evolving supercell structures with potential to produce a
tornado or two appear possible across the Piedmont of northeastern
Georgia and adjacent Upstate South Carolina by 4-6 PM EST. It is
still not certain that this will require a severe weather watch, but
trends are being monitored.

DISCUSSION...A lingering belt of moderate to strong southeasterly to
southerly low-level flow (around 850 mb) across much of western and
northern Georgia is in the process of weakening and shifting north-northeastward based on latest Rapid Refresh output. By
20-22Z, strongest flow is forecast to become confined to the
Piedmont into higher terrain of northeastern Georgia and adjacent
Upstate South Carolina, but may still include speeds on the order of
30-35+ kt supporting sizable clockwise-curved low-level hodographs,
within an associated low-level warm advection zone.

Rapid 2-hourly surface pressure falls in excess of 2 mb are already
evident in 17Z surface observation across much of the Georgia into
South Carolina Piedmont, where associated ageostrophic accelerations
may contribute to increasing low-level convergence and further
moistening of boundary-layer dew points through the mid/upper 60s F.
Despite generally weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, coupled
with some boundary warming within breaks in the overcast,
near-surface destabilization may support intensifying convective
development, as negatively-tilted mid-level troughing slowly spreads into/across the southern Appalachians. This may include a few
evolving supercell structures with potential to produce a couple of
tornadoes. However, this threat still appears conditioned on the
evolution of near-surface thermoynamic profiles becoming conducive
to at least weak surface-based buoyancy.

..Kerr/Hart.. 11/04/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!8jp1sxZCdm9LPdLy7PH7dvJgLSlMSM_e6mWhWCbtXw066R30IgkOTgoRckm9fzuXyV_Ylp2QUMrS1fRA26QXxyVRjGw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON 33878407 34448371 34858283 34218257 33648317 33588385
33878407

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)