ACUS11 KWNS 032241
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032240
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-040115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2442
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0440 PM CST Tue Nov 03 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the Lower Mississippi Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 032240Z - 040115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...The potential for a brief/weak tornado or two and locally
damaging wind gusts will continue spreading eastward over the next
few hours. The overall severe threat is expected to remain fairly
marginal and localized.

DISCUSSION...A NNE/SSW-oriented broken line of thunderstorms is
tracking eastward across parts of LA into southern AR, with
additional shallow cellular storms ahead of the line. This activity
will continue tracking eastward across the Lower MS Valley over the
next few hours -- in tandem with a robust midlevel trough and
related cold front. The LCH 18Z sounding sampled a moist air mass
ahead of these storms, with lower 70s dewpoints in LA, and
middle/upper 60s dewpoints extending northward into the Mid-South.
Despite poor lapse rates, the associated weak surface-based buoyancy
and small clockwise-curved low-level hodographs (sampled by the POE
VWP) will continue to support embedded rotating cells in the line,
and shallow/transient rotating showers/storms immediately ahead of
the line. A brief/weak tornado or two and locally damaging gusts
will remain possible with this activity, however, with the core of
the low-level jet shifting northward and aforementioned weak
buoyancy, the overall severe threat is expected to remain fairly
marginal and localized.

..Weinman/Gleason.. 11/03/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!93iFkyaF-I_RlkdMy8dXDUR0wKkEw_tev2C3yAojgjAnYhqie2jmt43Dpd1rx-EYyt9_HFHdOyxD1JJN1Z0GfrguJ0A$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 30789346 32099270 33269218 34339145 35179094 35229061
35169025 34938988 34608973 34128979 33619003 32649064
30929213 30659259 30569305 30599344 30789346

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)