ACUS11 KWNS 030235
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030234
MOZ000-KSZ000-030430-

Mesoscale Discussion 2438
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0834 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

Areas affected...Parts of eastern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 030234Z - 030430Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated damaging wind gusts and some chance for a brief
tornado are possible across parts of eastern Kansas this tonight.
While a watch is not currently expected, storm trends are being
monitored.

DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from KICT depicts a
north/south-oriented line of storms tracking eastward across parts
of southeastern KS at around 25 kt. Despite a fairly
coherent/organized cold pool and even some shallow/transient
circulations embedded in the line, a lack of wind reports suggest
this activity may be slightly elevated -- given relatively weak
buoyancy sampled by the TOP 00Z sounding. However, a low-level jet
will continue strengthening ahead of the line tonight (50 kt flow at
1 km AGL per INX VWP), which will conditionally support some
strengthening over the next few hours as it continues across eastern
KS. Isolated damaging gusts and some chance for a brief tornado
cannot be ruled out, especially if any mesovorticies evolve.
Confidence in this scenario is currently low, given recent trends
and the limited buoyancy, though convective trends are being
monitored.

..Weinman/Gleason.. 11/03/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!43ciTPJopFO13ud0EDzbEiacFcwh9uIt9ujS_JNnMK_Y2QV4Jz29TMjpWs26B9tAFs1zHokRjGEcIrhLvWHX0Gjoyss$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON 37609645 38929632 39299604 39449573 39519535 39429484
39089460 38689456 37799493 37389530 37409624 37609645

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
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