ACUS11 KWNS 030029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030028
OKZ000-030200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2437
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0628 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

Areas affected...Central Oklahoma

Concerning...Tornado Watch 701...

Valid 030028Z - 030200Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 701 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for QLCS tornadoes is expected to increase in
central Oklahoma and eastward as storms encounter increasing
low-level shear. A downstream watch into eastern Oklahoma will
eventually be needed.

DISCUSSION...A band of linear storms continues east-northeast into
central Oklahoma. The observed 00Z sounding from OUN showed weak
mid-level lapse rates, a capping inversion around 800 mb, and
weakness within the hodograph around the inversion level. These are
likely reasons why convection has struggled to intensify/organize.
With time, however, the low-level jet will continue to intensify
within central and especially eastern Oklahoma. Furthermore, lift
from approaching shortwave trough should improve the thermodynamic
environment. The threat for QLCS tornadoes will increase as storms
interact with greater low-level shear. Severe wind gusts will remain
possible. Large hail will likely remain isolated given the poor
mid-level lapse rates and linear storm mode. A watch will likely be
needed for parts of eastern Oklahoma this evening.

..Wendt.. 11/03/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5Y8cQHt9BVLH0-bbPBxmsWBGaDnP1q1RzHJJxeDpzJv4NDzaC9FTUfvIFwkNGIStIN-t2UvmKAqSo9TusLseGLCabow$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

LAT...LON 35219717 34949843 35019880 35239869 36269808 36659682
36349640 35709640 35329682 35219717

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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--- scorpsmtpd
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