ACUS11 KWNS 022353
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022352
KSZ000-OKZ000-030115-

Mesoscale Discussion 2435
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0552 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

Areas affected...North-central Oklahoma into south-central/southeast
Kansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 701...

Valid 022352Z - 030115Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 701 continues.

SUMMARY...Monitoring portions of north-central Oklahoma into south-central/southeast Kansas for some increase in severe potential
during the next couple of hours -- within Tornado Watch #701.
Primary concerns are damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...A north/south-oriented line of thunderstorms is
tracking east-northeastward across much of central OK into far
south-central KS. In the near-term, an embedded cluster in the
northern portion of the line has shown signs of recent
intensification and will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts and
possibly sporadic hail over north-central OK.

High-resolution guidance suggests that a mesoscale low feature may
evolve eastward along the KS/OK border in response to strengthening
large-scale forcing for ascent overspreading the area. This,
combined with a gradually strengthening low-level jet and related
increase in hodograph size/curvature, may support a locally
favorable corridor for storm intensification during the next couple
of hours. The main uncertainties are the potential for a continued
messy mode evolution and increasing nocturnal static
stability/limited buoyancy. However, given the increasingly
favorable wind profile (see ICT VWP), any embedded
supercells/mesovorticies could pose a risk of damaging wind gusts, a
couple of tornadoes, and sporadic severe hail.

The overall threat will be maximized with any NNW/SSE-oriented
convective segments -- given southwesterly low/deep-layer shear
sampled by regional VWP.

..Weinman.. 11/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!858RHVIfuoQBPR9zW8qKAmw1BLtXT63aW5mqCgSeSQM5EcEg9Wv5YyHsC_oOrgQbDxL4xMIc1hhwgqIf2jZ4Z-0WQ6E$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 36559809 37359788 37589772 37769734 37749695 37539675
36969683 36599715 36379760 36369803 36559809

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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--- scorpsmtpd
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