ACUS11 KWNS 022256
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 022255
TXZ000-030000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2434
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

Areas affected...Texas Rolling Plains into Edwards Plateau

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 022255Z - 030000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for all severe hazards will increase into the
evening across the Rolling Plains and Edwards Plateau. A watch is
likely late this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...As towering cumulus continue to deepen along a surface trough/Pacific cold front, the potential for severe storms is
expected to increase across parts of the Rolling Plains and Edwards
Plateau this evening. Surface heating has been stronger in these
areas than farther north (MLCAPE near 2000 J/kg). While shear and
mid-level ascent do decrease with southward extent, the concern is
for this weaker forcing to favor more discrete elements. As such,
the threat for severe winds and hail (perhaps to around 2 in. with
the stronger supercells) will be present. The threat for tornadoes
is somewhat less clear. The low-level jet will be focused more into
OK/KS, but an axis of stronger 850 mb winds will extend
southwestward into the Edwards Plateau. Should a mature supercell
persist eastward into the evening, there would be an increasing risk
for tornadoes given the enlarged low-level hodographs.

..Wendt/Gleason.. 11/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6-QjaDGQxX9hMoz_C77bmpq22hzlPipecws4Qoh8zNET7YhTh-0CtHLuwhwd4b1p58tr93H04b-trvbI0e4hpa-wVLM$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...

LAT...LON 31990133 32910023 33169993 33379858 33159811 32619813
31639899 31499959 31480065 31630102 31990133

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
= = =
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--- scorpsmtpd
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