ACUS11 KWNS 021955
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021955
TXZ000-022200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2431
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

Areas affected...portions of northwest...central...and north Texas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 021955Z - 022200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to initiate along a dryline
across northwest Texas this afternoon, with coverage gradually
increasing with time. Initial supercells will quickly transition
toward a mixed-mode of supercells and linear segments, with a threat
for all severe hazards.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery depicts developing
cumulus along/ahead of a surface dryline across portions of West
Texas and the Texas Panhandle. Downstream observations across
northwest Texas depict temperatures warming to near 80 F behind a
clearing stratus layer and amidst 100-mb mean mixing ratios of 14-15
g/kg, with this combination supporting 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE.
Continued heating through mid/late afternoon combined with
increasing large-scale ascent ahead of an approaching mid-level
shortwave trough currently noted over the eastern CO/NM border will
continue to foster additional destabilization through this evening.

As this shortwave transitions eastward, an attendant 60-70-kt
mid-level jet streak will begin to overlap northwest/north Texas,
with 40-50+ kts of effective shear supporting initial supercells
capable of primarily large hail. With time, increasing storm
coverage, particularly across northwest/north Texas, will favor a
transition to a mixed-mode of supercells/linear segments and an
associated increase in the threat for damaging/severe winds. A few
tornadoes also appear possible owing to a strengthening low-level
jet and increasingly clockwise-curved, low-level hodographs;
although, some uncertainty surrounding this threat exists as the
axis of strongest 850-mb flow will be displaced farther
northeastward. Regardless, watch issuance may be needed for at least
a portion of the Slight-risk area to cover these threats.

Farther south into central Texas, storm coverage is forecast to
increase later this evening as the low-level jet strengthens;
however, deep-layer flow/shear and related large-scale forcing
weaken with southward extent. This suggests that the severe risk is
likely to remain more isolated farther southward.

..Chalmers/Bentley.. 11/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!-erQcjwPTukXWztaSrx5t3Wmq2qKt4t-ubaOy97wkszGAyz9eDzuhWIqnWRrUeY7kfPqwYvgqx2jzl-Kp6ovf3yx1d4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...LUB...

LAT...LON 33349898 33359828 33359757 33359708 33219664 32969649
32569665 32119714 31259819 30519928 30130005 30070061
30320101 30850099 31540071 32350038 33109996 33339967
33359905 33349898

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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--- scorpsmtpd
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