ACUS11 KWNS 021855
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021855
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-022100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2430
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 PM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

Areas affected...western into central OK...south-central KS...and
western north TX

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 021855Z - 022100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Convective initiation is likely 230-400pm over western OK
along the dryline. As updrafts mature, a few supercells will evolve
with an initial large-hail threat. The tornado risk will increase
and probably peak 5-9pm as storms approach and move through the
US-81 and I-35 corridors.

DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a destabilizing
stratocumulus field across western OK and more vigorous cumuliform
development near the dryline and pacific front (located near DDC south-southwestward into the eastern TX Panhandle/Caprock vicinity).
Surface temperatures east of the dryline over northwest TX northward
through far western OK have risen into the upper 70s deg F with
additional heating into the 80s expected. West Texas Mesonet and
Oklahoma Mesonet dewpoint observations indicate a moist plume
extending from western north TX northward through western OK into
the Pratt/Greensburg, KS vicinity. This warming/destabilizing
characterization of the boundary layer is in contrast to the airmass
sampled earlier this morning by the 16 UTC (10am CST) Norman, OK
raob only depicting very weak buoyancy (100 J/kg MLCAPE) and a 12.4
g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio.

Expecting additional destabilization with greater mixing and erosion
of MLCINH to occur over the western 1/3 of OK through the mid
afternoon. Forecast soundings show moderate buoyancy (1000-1500
J/kg MLCAPE) with a moist/high relative humidity boundary layer as
lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratios increase from 13 to 14-15 g/kg.
Expecting a few supercells to evolve from the initial discrete
storms with a large-hail threat ensuing quickly. The tornado risk
will likely peak during the 5-9pm period as storms move east through
the moist plume. Additional storms will likely develop with a mixed
mode of supercell and linear segments posing a continued risk for
tornadoes and severe gusts.

..Smith/Bentley.. 11/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7lIxr1mVQAaO_IJ9Pat4AK1LItR7lh_V00HurCfTXgg6XKa8UBoXD_t71iH2YkoM2y1rFgLZU7QptKSLeSH0DH1A4oI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON 34439965 37719923 38249849 38439744 38349642 37749605
37629604 36079612 34649678 33849797 33869936 34439965

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-145 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN
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--- scorpsmtpd
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