ACUS11 KWNS 021756
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 021755
KSZ000-OKZ000-021930-

Mesoscale Discussion 2429
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

Areas affected...central and northern OK into southeast KS

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 021755Z - 021930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Relatively high uncertainty in the near term on whether robust/sustained storm development occurs during the next few hours.
Trends will be closely monitored.

DISCUSSION...Midday visible satellite/radar imagery shows a
confluence band of deepening convection from near Chickasha, OK north-northeastward to near Wichita, KS. Surface temperatures have
warmed into the lower 70s with mid 60s deg F dewpoints. Convective
inhibition is gradually eroding but a relatively thick stratus layer
will likely delay stronger heating/mixing through the early
afternoon. Current thinking is greater buoyancy will develop west
of this convective band from southwest OK northwest into
northwestern OK. Nonetheless, the Wichita, KS WSR-88D VAD shows a
gradual intensification of the wind profile and 0-1 km shear
approaching 30 kt. A shallow supercell or two may eventually form
within this convective band. The risk for severe associated with
any of these storms remains unclear.

..Smith/Bentley.. 11/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!5q2ocCWnd5_ZmP0xfGA3vc_HFy43K1r3XTOHJD3RM2TNCtCeCU1FM-iDi-v7FM61GfV-aEZ75cv-2Jth29AKy_P0h4w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 36299769 37299758 38159688 38209634 37889598 37159611
34959715 34619774 34629810 34829831 36299769

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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--- scorpsmtpd
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