ACUS11 KWNS 020901
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020901
TXZ000-021100-

Mesoscale Discussion 2428
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026

Areas affected...Parts of the Texas Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 020901Z - 021100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...The severe threat is waning across the Texas Panhandle as thunderstorms become displaced behind a surface cold pool.
Additional watch issuance will not be needed.

DISCUSSION...Overall convective intensity has been waning over the
past hour per MRMS echo tops and GOES IR imagery. Although
occasional updraft pulses continue to be noted, convection
along/within the primary band appears to be elevated and displaced
behind the surface cold pool. Consequently, the potential for robust surface-based convection is quickly diminishing despite some
lingering MUCAPE and strong deep-layer wind shear.

A few shallow convective towers are noted along the NM/TX state line
to the west of Lubbock, TX. Recent guidance, notably the 06z HRRR,
suggests that this activity could intensify as it moves east across
a plume of 1000-1500 MUCAPE. However, given the anemic radar and
satellite presentation of the convection so far, coupled with
lingering inhibition downstream, it appears unlikely that this
activity poses a substantial severe threat through the early morning
hours.

..Moore.. 11/02/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7Oe9o8zsY-w5UmXfemNLx96e3XcswenDqVHm8a97QqKnThQQSa71jDCCVWABot0OaN5LyN_9nZYjgOyZ3TIenkktoWw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON 34390227 35020141 35790083 35920052 35890033 35660021
35200030 34760055 34530081 34370105 34260132 34160159
34150179 34150203 34190216 34390227

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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--- scorpsmtpd
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