ACUS11 KWNS 012329
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012329
TXZ000-OKZ000-NMZ000-020200-

Mesoscale Discussion 2424
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0529 PM CST Sun Nov 01 2026

Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico into West Texas and the western
Oklahoma Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 012329Z - 020200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...An increasing risk for QLCS circulations and perhaps
leading supercell tornadoes is expected early to mid evening. Severe
wind gusts will also be possible as well. A watch is likely this
evening with a tornado watch being possible.

DISCUSSION...A linear band of low-topped convection continues
eastward in the vicinity of Albuquerque. Strong mid-level ascent
will continue to spread eastward this evening as a potent mid-level
shortwave trough moves east. Lightning activity continues to
increase with this linear band. With time, this convection will
encounter upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints east of the terrain. This
will occur coincident with a marked increase in 700 mb flow across
the Southwest/southern High Plains regions. The expectation is for
there to be an increase in QLCS circulation and perhaps leading
supercell potential by around 03Z. Given the strong wind fields,
even modest convection will be capable of severe wind gusts. A watch
is likely this evening for parts of eastern New Mexico into the
Texas Panhandle and South Plains. Some consideration for a tornado
watch will be given.

..Wendt/Guyer.. 11/01/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!60fqgkQaIlwVU0LGV8iM3VbXMtgo-O4yfn_KdRUBqeAqfW545gIQe1Dcc27iRKP_rIis8OyTYzSxTi6vdwAC3noXI4U$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 33090449 33140492 33700511 34560496 35820448 36450424
36930272 36420209 35110204 34140279 33740317 33090449

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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--- scorpsmtpd
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