ACUS11 KWNS 012142
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012142
NMZ000-012315-

Mesoscale Discussion 2423
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CST Sun Nov 01 2026

Areas affected...portions of central and southern New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 012142Z - 012315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...At least some increase in the overall severe risk is
possible over the next couple of hours. The timing of watch issuance
remains unclear.

DISCUSSION...A broad area of precipitation has advanced eastward
into eastern Arizona/western New Mexico through mid-afternoon in
advance of a leading mid-level shortwave trough currently noted over
western Arizona. Through 2140 UTC, convective activity within this
band has been limited, with relatively minimal lightning activity
noted across southeastern Arizona/northern Mexico over the past
several hours. While clearer conditions have allowed surface
temperatures to warm into the upper 60s/lower 70s F downstream
across central/southern New Mexico, latest HRRR- and RAP-based
objective analyses suggest that surface-based buoyancy remains
fairly weak (generally in the 250-750 J/kg range) amid poor
mid-level lapse rates.

Despite this relatively limited thermodynamic environment, strong
deep-layer flow/shear (0-6 km bulk shear of 50-60+ kts) is more than
sufficient for the development of organized convection. Latest
forecast guidance continues to suggest that a broken/low-topped line
of thunderstorms will emerge across central NM (and perhaps
southwestern NM/southeastern AZ) in the 22-00z time frame, with the
potential for damaging/severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes. This
risk is expected to increase with time this evening, particularly as
convection evolves eastward into eastern NM and the western TX
Panhandle. Given the slow evolution of convection thus far, the
timing of watch issuance remains unclear; although, a WW will
probably be needed eventually for at least a portion of the
Slight-risk area pending the development/intensification of
convection.

..Chalmers/Gleason.. 11/01/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6qReb4lILgv9jYsW7sJNGGPVOsuJCqT4R_Ir1PM_y5KZ9bp8BSn5DdS5rrU-77iy2cUZChxyRxm0TTKk5uifQO8ZRQI$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...

LAT...LON 34350801 35190747 36000654 36200603 36170552 35920518
35370511 34250529 33220578 32800643 32610740 32690796
33100824 33760828 34350801

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)