ACUS11 KWNS 012135
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 012134
AZZ000-012300-

Mesoscale Discussion 2422
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0334 PM CST Sun Nov 01 2026

Areas affected...Southwest Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 012134Z - 012300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...An isolated strong storm will be possible, but the overall
severe threat should remain relatively low.

DISCUSSION...Surface temperatures are warming into the low-mid 70s
within cloud breaks across southwest AZ, and deepening cumulus is
noted along a deep-layer confluence zone coincident with a
subtropical shortwave trough ejecting quickly east-northeastward
over southwest AZ. A couple more hours of surface heating is
possible prior to passage of the shortwave trough and associated
low-level cooling/drying occurs. A tendency for warming midlevel
temperatures from the west and the low-level cooling will limit the
magnitude of and the spatial and temporal window for destabilization
from southwest into south central AZ. In the interim, a strong,
low-topped storm will be possible along the confluence band with
low-end potential for strong convective gusts given strong midlevel
flow and long hodographs.

..Thompson/Gleason.. 11/01/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!7UCkRNOfSS23YnVyiQ_7-kalio8jdnIPzFfwtLYgR-AEYXqI9idzXrkByot81v6qgpEcXGPl4bN5LOGqVWtjQnqKvDA$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PSR...

LAT...LON 33311172 32991196 32641255 32571304 32631349 32961362
33371348 33641305 33891221 33741177 33311172

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
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--- scorpsmtpd
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