ACUS11 KWNS 201839
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201839
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-202045-

Mesoscale Discussion 2315
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Areas affected...South-central into east-central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 201839Z - 202045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Damaging winds and isolated, marginally severe hail may
occur with the strongest storms this afternoon. The spatial extent
of severe potential may remain isolated. The need for a watch is
uncertain and trends will continue to be monitored through the
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Convective activity has been increasing within the
surface trough in central/eastern Oklahoma. A recent TAMDAR sounding
from TUL suggest MLCIN remains owing to some cloud cover; however,
MLCIN should slowly weaken with time as has been noted within the
Ouchita Mountains on visible satellite. The KINX VAD shows a
relatively disorganized wind profile. More favorable wind profiles
are likely to remain displaced from the better thermodynamic
environment. Even so, around 25-30 kt of effective shear will still
be in place due to the weak mid-level perturbation in to the
immediate west. Moderately steep low-level lapse rates and a
well-mixed boundary layer will mean damaging wind potential with the
strongest storms. Given the observed 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates,
isolated marginally severe hail may also occur. While widely
scattered to scattered coverage will eventually evolved, the overall
severity of this activity is not certain given the expected
disorganized modes.

..Wendt/Mosier.. 09/20/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!405W2WqS8xZFjFdGbnQfFcEo-EqPa5V-5gc_VqBq_GDp8GiRWH47CPPFiY3Lci1mpd392mnnPf8YC0KjJ4NIyZhEEpc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON 33969717 34709726 36139583 36239494 35899443 35119460
34469530 34069612 33939663 33969717

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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