ACUS11 KWNS 200005
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 200005
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-NEZ000-TXZ000-200130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2312
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0705 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

Areas affected...Central Plains

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670...

Valid 200005Z - 200130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 670
continues.

SUMMARY...Scattered strong-to-severe thunderstorms will be possible
this evening. Locally damaging winds and hail will be the main
threats. The need for a downstream watch will continue to be
assessed.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing this evening along a surface boundary/wind shift that stretches from the south Texas Panhandle
northeast into southeast Iowa. Along and ahead of this boundary,
temperatures warmed and remain in the mid-90Fs to lower-100Fs, with
surface dewpoint temperatures in the mid-to-upper-60Fs along the
boundary. The result is a very unstable environment with MUCAPE
values in excess of 2000 J/kg and DCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg.
However, the stronger vertical shear is lagging the instability axis
and remains along and behind the surface boundary. Thunderstorms
ingesting this airmass have been capable of producing measure severe
wind speeds (65 mph) across Dickinson County, KS. These storms will
continue northeast and threaten the northwest Kansas City metro area
over the next couple of hours.

The latest high resolution guidance suggests that ongoing
thunderstorms will continue to move east, northeast and increase in
number this evening. The increase in number of storms with their
congealing outflow boundaries, coupled with nocturnal cooling,
should eventually weaken overall instability and limit the long-term
wind threat, especially with the strongest vertical shear remaining
west of the area.

A local extension of Severe Thunderstorm Watch #670 just occurred,
and the need for a downstream watch will continue to be assessed.

..Marsh.. 09/20/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!6BcekbwLPxtFAhLwAG5EDJJ-JMC3Ol9faAgxnsDwK_XV5RNzYKH2cKmF0AQDAA0KNDpHNnJWZTH7Vo6eApRxT_5Y3zQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...
DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON 35840006 37709957 39799715 40399587 40979388 39929331
38509395 37319471 36079667 35599868 35840006

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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