ACUS11 KWNS 052014
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052013
OKZ000-TXZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-052215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1837
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0313 PM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Raton Mesa in New Mexico/Colorado
into the western Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 052013Z - 052215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Weak upslope flow and strong heating across the higher
terrain should support scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and
into the evening. A few strong to severe storms are possible with
isolated hail or severe wind gusts possible. Organization and
coverage of the stronger storms should be limited and a Watch
appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION...As of 20 UTC, visible imagery showed initial updrafts
along the crest of the Sangre De Cristos Range and Raton Mesa were
deepening. Weak upslope flow and diurnal heating south of a
quasi-stationary front will continue to support destabilization this
afternoon. RAP soundings show convective temperatures in the mid 80s
to low 90s F are gradually being reached which should remove most
inhibition over the next 1-2 hours. This, along with the weak
upslope flow and a passing weak mid-level trough should support an
increase in storm coverage through the afternoon.

The air mass over the southern High Plains is hot and moderately
unstable with SPC mesosanalysis showing 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and
mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km by late afternoon. This will be
sufficient to support stronger updrafts initially over the higher
terrain. Deep-layer shear is not overly strong (20-30 kt), but
should allow the storms to move off the higher terrain and
strengthen with time, especially into this evening as a 25+ kt
southerly low-level jet is forecast to develop. This could support
some organized multicell structures or transient supercells.

Convection should gradually intensify this afternoon before moving
into the High Plains later today. Isolated hail is possible with the
initial cellular storms, but steep lapse rates and a relatively dry
sub-cloud layer should favor strong/isolated severe gusts.
Clustering of outflow could also support a gust of 75+ mph.

While some severe risk is expected to increase over the next few
hours, overall forcing remains weak. This, along with lingering
inhibition and modest buoyancy, suggest storm organization will be
limited. As such, a WW currently appears unlikely, though trends
will be monitored should any more focused corridors of severe
potential emerge.

..Lyons/Gleason.. 08/05/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!71Rz5ly5MgN7RE0DJ6fINkcVd8IgGTxKcnJgz_BJIBtzCq69nSKv5CbDhO4dklgHkZF3JbcQ5tDJAjJxlxTMB7KA0lc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 37500507 37290356 37160187 36910112 36640081 36240084
35870114 35460254 35270324 35140412 35130475 35040533
35120552 35360602 35600619 35920621 36310618 36700589
37350549 37500507

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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