ACUS11 KWNS 050502
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050501
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-050700-

Mesoscale Discussion 1836
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 AM CDT Wed Aug 05 2026

Areas affected...parts of southeastern Nebraska through southwestern
Iowa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 050501Z - 050700Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing across the region could pose
limited potential for hail and gusty winds into the 1-3 AM CDT time
frame, but the severe weather threat generally appears limited.

DISCUSSION...Aided by ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric
warm advection, near the nose of a modest nocturnally strengthening
southerly low-level jet (20-30 around 850 mb), thunderstorms have
recently initiated to the cool side of a fairly sharp, stalled
low-level baroclinic zone across the central Great Plains into
middle Mississippi Valley. Lapse rates above the stable
near-surface layer appear to be supporting CAPE in excess of 1000
J/kg, in the presence of strong westerly shear near the base of
large-scale mid/upper troughing overspreading the north central U.S.
This environment is supportive of organized convection, including
supercell structures, but relatively warm thermodynamic profiles in
the convective layer may tend to limit the risk for severe hail.
Barring the development of a notable surface pressure perturbation
associated with gravity waves, which currently seems a low
probability, the potential for damaging surface gusts also appears
limited.

..Kerr/Smith.. 08/05/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_0YOUK21-fNfoNtzTksS-5gn2aSr_39Opb3IakPBqO9DJKHnIxFSicMy19wEuC1JBuau_9xX9dEOhSzxUHT9JzdtvSo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON 41179601 41459537 41549479 41519346 40869323 40769388
40529595 40899625 41179601

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


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