ACUS11 KWNS 050425
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050425
AZZ000-050630-

Mesoscale Discussion 1835
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 PM CDT Tue Aug 04 2026

Areas affected...the eastern Arizona international border vicinity

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538...

Valid 050425Z - 050630Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 538
continues.

SUMMARY...A couple of strong to severe wind gusts might still be
possible through about 10-11 PM MST near the eastern Arizona
international border vicinity.

DISCUSSION...A concentrated area of stronger convection to the
southeast of Douglas AZ, appears in the process of collapsing,
perhaps accompanied by increasing potential for strong to severe
surface gusts near the international border area over the next hour
or so. However, renewed intensifying convection is tending to occur
to the southwest of this core, farther to the south of the
international border, aided by more unstable updraft inflow and
better shear. As this trend continues into the overnight hours. the
risk for severe weather appears to be diminishing sufficiently to
allow the severe weather watch to expire.

..Kerr.. 08/05/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!53Ek6NoOShjNxd5tiNW-QObtGG3yfewDGgy1TYkcj-wUf53fLpT7CQ4guQ5u6jm0h5qlH44DIdPsJx_y6oj72mKCjY8$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...

LAT...LON 30731098 31101110 31381100 31500933 31000875 30530921
30351047 30731098

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


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--- scorpsmtpd
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