ACUS11 KWNS 290136
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 290136
SCZ000-GAZ000-290300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1794
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0836 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...North GA into Upstate SC

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530...531...

Valid 290136Z - 290300Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 530, 531
continues.

SUMMARY...A threat for damaging wind and possibly a brief tornado
may continue through late evening, before an eventual weakening
trend.

DISCUSSION...Vigorous convection is ongoing this evening from north
GA into Upstate SC. In the short-term, moderate to strong buoyancy
(MLCAPE of greater than 2000 J/kg) and 35-45 kt of northwesterly
effective shear will continue to support organized convection. Given
the evolution to mostly a linear mode across north GA, damaging wind
is expected to be the primary hazard, though an embedded supercell
or two cannot be ruled out, with some attendant potential for a
brief tornado and marginal hail.

With rather warm temperatures aloft (as observed on the 00Z FFC
sounding) and a tendency for stronger large-scale ascent to be
displaced northeast of the region, an eventual weakening trend is
expected. However, at least an isolated severe threat may spread
southward out of WW 530 and WW 531 before storms diminish.

..Dean.. 07/29/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_RmEiOejj0Yki1DgyCUrMQx3PvgEV5M1-NQaSRZhbxEKVJ03sS8Mg7tO65dQNTJqFMHJWgNTy9n2OutF2CoiNXnwmt4$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...

LAT...LON 34968459 34698168 34728140 34428143 34218157 33818197
33898339 34068427 34118464 34418481 34918483 34968459

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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