ACUS11 KWNS 282251
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 282251
NJZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-282345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1791
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0551 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...portions of far eastern Pennsylvania into central
and southern New Jersey

Concerning...Tornado Watch 529...

Valid 282251Z - 282345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 529 continues.

SUMMARY...A locally higher threat for a QLCS tornado or severe gusts
exists over the next couple of hours.

DISCUSSION...The northern end of a cold-pool-driven MCS/QLCS is
beginning to traverse a stationary baroclinic boundary, where
leading-line intensification has been noted. Despite overall modest
vertical wind shear, enhanced streamwise vorticity along this
boundary may promote a locally heightened risk of leading-line
mesovortex development over the next 1-2 hours. Should such
development occur, a focused threat for a severe gust or brief QLCS
tornado will exist given ample low-level moisture and 1500+ J/kg
MLCAPE.

..Squitieri.. 07/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_P6un7Pi0hamTzdh05Ohx0k8j0MbX1WHYUwLFsSvj1Y8ldy2uy6Yllv9RJolwQRccOqUbMZlilzXCV7SY9sIUG2SWAc$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...

LAT...LON 39507474 39817547 39997567 40207568 40437546 40497478
40547425 40407396 40247391 39977401 39847408 39647429
39507474

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
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