ACUS11 KWNS 281805
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281804
MDZ000-DEZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-282000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1783
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...portions of West Virginia...northern/central
Virginia...and southern Delaware

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 281804Z - 282000Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential to increase through the afternoon.
Damaging wind, large hail, and tornadoes will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Ahead of an approaching cold front across West
Virginia, mostly sunny skies across portions of northern/central
Virginia has allowed for temperatures to rise into the low to mid
80s. Steepening low-level lapse rates and increasing MLCAPE are
noted across the region as a result. Strong mid-level flow is
supporting deep layer shear around 40-50 kts. Flow is generally
perpendicular to the front, which may support a mix of clusters and
supercell structures. Steepening low-level lapse rates will support
potential for downward momentum transfer and damaging wind. With any
supercell structures that can maintain, large hail and perhaps a
tornado will be possible. More modest low-level shear may somewhat
limit the tornado potential initially, though the low-level jet may
increase into the late afternoon. A watch will be needed soon to
cover this potential.

..Thornton/Hart.. 07/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!_XBmH5zj3byqPB8J5ZHazUTBJ8SdabzX1W_UTn4H9sYfk08tOdnhqGHD23ItzYqvKVDDRbHS0pO88xD7Z4tHT8hxRSo$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 39547882 39318019 38388081 38048006 36987787 36677684
36647594 37217539 38307509 38607506 38887566 39547882

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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