ACUS11 KWNS 281634
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281633
VAZ000-NCZ000-WVZ000-TNZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-281830-

Mesoscale Discussion 1781
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Areas affected...eastern Kentucky...southern West Virginia...western Virginia...western North Carolina

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 281633Z - 281830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Severe potential to increase through the afternoon.
Damaging wind, large hail, and a few tornadoes will be possible.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms across western Virginia have shown
transient supercell characteristics over the last couple of hours,
with mid-level rotation apparent on radar. These will continue south
and east through the early afternoon with potential for large hail,
damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado.

Additional thunderstorm activity is expected to develop back to the
west near the cold front into eastern Kentucky and southern West
Virginia. In addition to strong deep layer shear around 45-55 kts, a
25-30 kt low-level jet axis through this region will support
increasing low-level shear and increasing curvature of low-level
hodographs. This will support potential for supercells and potential
for a few tornadoes where supercells can be maintained. Guidance
suggests storm mode may be mixed, with clusters/bowing segments and
supercells. This leads to some uncertainty in how long more discrete
supercells will be maintained, with potential for damaging wind and
hail to be the highest confidence threat. A watch will be needed to
cover this potential by the afternoon.

..Thornton/Hart.. 07/28/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fjg!4RUeTPJQ0Vyu_l-pDnAeR-fE3d43qdOM3CsWJSSk7X5H3CrTJUUWz4XNFV1AiI5UAPD9qYD7ANLVE6yylL0qZQM4W8w$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL... ILN...LMK...OHX...

LAT...LON 37877910 37417871 37247849 36677857 36277882 36037907
35627965 35448013 35428108 35488315 35998437 36428467
36608472 36908483 37198476 37648476 38438437 38558372
38558225 38418146 38188032 37877910

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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--- scorpsmtpd
* Origin: capitolcityonline.net * KY, USA (1:2320/107)