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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1038

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 9 01:55:58 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 090155
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090155=20
    KSZ000-090400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1038
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0855 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

    Areas affected...central and eastern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 290...

    Valid 090155Z - 090400Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 290
    continues.

    SUMMARY...An evolving thunderstorm complex will move southeastward
    with a risk for severe gusts this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Ongoing convection over Tornado Watch 287 and Severe
    Watch 290 has grown upscale into an organized and linear convective
    complex this evening. Further upscale growth is likely as the
    cluster interacts with a very unstable environment (MLCAPE 4000+
    J/kg) and a 25-35 kt southerly low-level jet. The strong instability
    and cold pool will likely support severe gusts through this evening.
    A few significant gusts to 75+ mph are also possible.

    Observed low-level shear is also fairly strong from the ICT VAD
    (0-1km SRH of 100-200 m2/s2). This could support a couple of
    tornadoes, both with the linear cluster, and with interacting cells
    ahead of the outflow. With the complex expected to continue
    east/southeast, the risk for severe wind gusts remains high across
    WW290.

    ..Lyons.. 06/09/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!89Qq7K8nK6VrXrvkwsD7A7Zv3ae2KoyYOjVXcoJTWYUG2hPxeaaQ8gBk9ZMk_q6h48L1NIV8O= -ELe8XjQownx-OzQC4$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

    LAT...LON 37509528 37379582 37609725 37909812 38249873 38669890
    39139889 39589816 39729738 39589629 39369573 39019520
    38059508 37679517 37509528=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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