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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1037

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Jun 9 00:58:57 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 090058
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 090058=20
    NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-090300-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1037
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0758 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

    Areas affected...western/central Nebraska into northern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 090058Z - 090300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential to evolve downstream through the
    evening.

    DISCUSSION...One or more clusters of thunderstorms will move
    downstream into portions of western and central Nebraska into far
    northern Kansas this evening. Surface objective analysis suggests
    MLCIN is in place across portions of central Nebraska, with
    temperatures cooling with the diurnal cycle. THe 00z sounding from
    LBF further supports this notion with a warm nose around 850-700 mb.
    With loss of heating, it is likely MLCIN will remain, which may
    temper the downstream severe risk with northern extent.=20

    A more well defined cluster coming out of eastern Colorado may
    present the more likely severe potential into the evening.
    Downstream across southern Nebraska into northern Kansas, MLCIN
    weakens with a steep gradient of MLCAPE around 1000-4000 J/kg
    extending into north-central Kansas. Additionally, strong deep layer
    shear is in place which should foster organization of a damaging MCS
    this evening.

    A new Severe Thunderstorm watch may be possible to replace portions
    of Tornado Watches 288 and 287 by 03z.

    ..Thornton/Gleason.. 06/09/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!79rdctX6LnEuQ149q7RuEnhim94PpdrKs51vIUu-0Eo_jh2tU8GDMRL9w-jJRxiROKoMwgin5= ht2yd0N5unMs5RE1sc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

    LAT...LON 39980350 40700335 41690333 41850329 42020325 42450266
    42380137 42070105 41840092 41540081 40690065 40320066
    39930076 39650088 39430125 39310148 39310214 39350225
    39350294 39420341 39630341 39980350=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)