ACUS11 KWNS 082013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082012=20
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-082215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1032
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Areas affected...portions of the southern High Plains and central
Great Plains

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 082012Z - 082215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated, high-based thunderstorms will pose a risk for
large hail and damaging/severe wind gusts this through this evening.
Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a surface low located
in southwestern Kansas, with a trailing dryline extending
southwestward through the Texas Panhandle and into far southeastern
New Mexico. A weak cold front/surface trough was also analyzed,
trailing southwestward from the low into the Oklahoma Panhandle
before extending into Colorado. Latest guidance continues to suggest
that isolated, high-based thunderstorms will develop along/west of
this dryline and south of the surface trough through the late
afternoon/early evening. Recent satellite/observational data
supports this, with deepening cumulus noted along and west of the
dryline within the plume of steep low-level lapse rates and a
modified 18z observed AMA sounding suggesting minimal remaining
inhibition.

Weak mid-level flow and effective shear (less than 20 kts per latest mesoanalysis) will largely inhibit updraft organization. Deep,
well-mixed boundary layers west of the dryline (dewpoint depressions
exceeding 40-50 F) and steep low-level lapse rates will promote the
potential for isolated damaging/severe wind gusts. Despite weak
effective shear, steep mid-level lapse rates (9+ C/km as sampled by
the AMA/DDC/LMN 18z observed soundings) and a modest strengthening
of upper-level flow through the evening will also support isolated
large hail, particularly with any storm that can interact with
greater moisture along/east of the dryline (although, low-level
capping within the moist air mass east of the dryline will likely
yield short longevity for any storms that cross the dryline).

Watch issuance appears unlikely at this time owing to the
expectations for limited storm organization and only an isolated
severe threat.

..Chalmers/Smith.. 06/08/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7L5U3khDPouDX3zu3w_lZIqNwjtAh6TpFfLwmIx8SPuiXzhzgyY4WuFwESAZuQYKeEP23Pfyc= jI3rScMwA4eiLB5OyQ$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON 34110064 32330249 32090284 31970337 32090385 32410397
32960379 33680344 35030247 35140242 35970178 36240171
36560173 36890184 37060195 37320196 37660191 37840173
37960145 37990089 37929995 37779939 37499886 36999869
36329894 35459952 34110064=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)