ACUS11 KWNS 081930
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081929=20
COZ000-082200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1030
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0229 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Areas affected...parts of east central Colorado

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 081929Z - 082200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorm development increasingly
probable by 2-4 PM MDT, including an evolving supercell or two
accompanied by the risk for a tornado, in addition to sizable hail.

DISCUSSION...Surface ridging nosing southward through northeastern
Colorado is beginning to weaken, with 2-hourly surface pressure
falls around 2 mb sampled in 19Z surface observations to the
immediate lee of the Colorado Front Range. Near-surface flow is
veering to an east/southeasterly component, leading to moistening
upslope flow north of the Palmer Ridge into the Greater Denver area.

Beneath modest (around 20 kt), but strongly sheared, southwesterly
deep-layer mean flow, the environment appears likely to become
increasingly conducive to supercell development during the next few
hours, as the boundary layer destabilizes with continuing
insolation. Though mid-level heights are tending to rise, it
appears that this may be aided by forcing for ascent associated with lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection. Strongest storms along the
northern slope of the Palmer Ridge may be accompanied by potential
for a tornado or two, in addition to sizable hail.

..Kerr/Smith.. 06/08/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7mp7VQG1V0gZRd0ld8anvg049JdKisF_RAGybszS-TOtONgpufzzcCwXlA5Zke-Io8XBRmYLR= 37S63R5bNtVXMyPxSY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON 40220492 39730257 38580344 39240493 40220492=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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