ACUS11 KWNS 081840
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081839=20
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-082045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1028
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0139 PM CDT Mon Jun 08 2026

Areas affected...lower Ohio River Valley into the mid-Mississippi
Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 081839Z - 082045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may bring a risk for isolated
strong wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado through this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery depicts a well-defined
MCV located southwest of St. Louis, MO. Widely scattered to
scattered convection was ongoing downstream of this MCV from
east-central IL southward into the mid-Mississippi Valley along a
weak surface trough/wind shift, with a marginally more organized
convective band located in east-central Illinois recently producing
a measured 42 kt wind gust. Expectation is for this convection to
evolve east-northeastward through this afternoon. Despite weak
mid-level lapse rates, a very moist low-level air mass is
contributing to MLCAPE on the order of 1500-2500 J/kg. With latest
objective analysis depicting pockets of modestly steeper low-level
lapse rates of 7+ C/km and PWATs around 2 inches, isolated strong
wind gusts of 40-50 mph (and perhaps a localized damaging wind gust)
may occur with water-loaded downbursts. While weak effective shear
(generally less than 20-25 kts) will limit overall convective
organization, a brief tornado or landspout also cannot be ruled out
should a more robust low-level updraft interact with enhanced
surface vertical vorticity or weakly-curved, low-level hodographs in
the vicinity of the aforementioned weak surface trough/wind shift.
Watch issuance is not anticipated owing to the expectation for
limited severe coverage/magnitude.

..Chalmers/Smith.. 06/08/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-a3rAXz54Iv4l3NiEbi0WEr6a2z5i11e9KYMRkKmXbQAt2ytUn3aeU2aIOUQp5mGO2N2OleqK= JT9GO0aDCzchSaTajg$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON 35818893 35898924 36138936 36698934 37228927 38778893
39218876 39868852 40178830 40328809 40408781 40378754
39898707 39168677 38408671 37908676 37578686 37088702
36558745 36058834 35888874 35818893=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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