ACUS11 KWNS 072345
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072345=20
NDZ000-MTZ000-080115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1019
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0645 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Areas affected...western North Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285...

Valid 072345Z - 080115Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 285
continues.

SUMMARY...Severe supercells along the cold front will pose a risk
for hail, damaging winds and a tornado or two this evening.
Eventually upscale growth into a line with a risk for significant
damaging winds is possible.

DISCUSSION...Several supercells have rapidly intensified along and
behind the sagging cold front across northwestern ND. Richer
low-level moisture (mid to upper 60s F surface dewpoints) along the
cool side of the boundary is supporting large buoyancy amid strongly
veering wind profiles. Hail (some greater than 2 inches) is likely
with these initial supercells. Low-level moisture may also be
sufficient for a couple of tornadoes given the strong low-level
buoyancy and enhanced vertical vorticity along the front.=20

Eventually the convection emanating out of MT and SD, as well as the
surging front will favor upscale growth into linear clusters. The
strong buoyancy and vertical shear would support a risk for damaging
winds, some of which could be significant.

..Lyons.. 06/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7xzFIjRw6bcQvUcC-GhDUy9s-MhTL-3ylakRRhxA0wUpelv0_ftY3jHh13PN3yDwbbtXnjcUM= nwqIEjwcqfC-YHrFHk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...GGW...

LAT...LON 46870272 46650335 46710402 47410406 48780317 49150231
49020181 48660171 47970206 46870272=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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