ACUS11 KWNS 071900
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071859=20
VAZ000-MDZ000-NCZ000-072100-

Mesoscale Discussion 1015
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 071859Z - 072100Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms may pose a localized risk
for strong/damaging wind gusts and perhaps small hail this
afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a weak cold front in
place across portions of Virginia, extending from south of
Roanoke/Blacksburg into southern Delaware/Maryland. Temperatures
have warmed into the low-90s ahead of this front, with 60s F
dewpoints noted across southeastern Virginia and northeastern North
Carolina. Amid continued insolation, expectation is for widely
scattered thunderstorms to develop over the next couple of hours
along/near this front across portions of central/southeastern
Virginia, with storms gradually evolving southeastward through the
early evening. 500 to locally 1500 J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating and
around 25-30 kts of effective shear along the southern periphery of
a mid-level trough may promote occasional strong thunderstorms, with
isolated damaging wind gusts possible. Warm mid-level temperatures
will temper overall convective intensity, but an instance or two of
small hail could also accompany the strongest updrafts. Watch
issuance is not expected owing to the limited coverage/magnitude of
the severe threat.

..Chalmers/Smith.. 06/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!_f4aN7Ne3Hfh81ntTYwigf4mErw08lWWgo0FJhzoBZgP8xRu7bLq96QXw4Mo7z3Rp4b_mt_Xw= pF_meRdgjnav8qElqs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

LAT...LON 36377580 36277612 36247691 36287734 36357769 36547819
36707854 36887880 37087908 37467941 37857947 38347939
38487907 38427845 38227760 38097690 37967599 37867534
37727542 37317567 36987586 36747583 36497571 36377580=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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