ACUS11 KWNS 071817
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071816=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-072015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1014
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0116 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

Areas affected...portions of the Ozarks and ArkLaTex

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 071816Z - 072015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon from the Ozarks southward into the Ouachita Mountains and
ArkLaTex. A couple of tornadoes and isolated damaging winds gusts
are possible. Trends will be monitored for the potential issuance of
a targeted Tornado Watch for a portion of the discussion area.

DISCUSSION...Continued heating of a very moist low-level air mass is
supporting an increase in thunderstorm coverage across portions of
the Ozarks southward into ArkLaTex as of early this afternoon ahead
of an MCV evident near Tulsa, OK, in latest satellite/radar imagery.
An associated band of 30-40+ kt southwesterly mid-level flow is
located downstream of this MCV, with around 40-45 kt recently
sampled around 4 km AGL by the SRX/SGF VAD profiles. This will
continue to contribute to a modest enlargement of low-level
hodographs, with around 100 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH expected by
mid-afternoon. This will promote the potential for weak supercells
and a couple of tornadoes, with the greatest potential expected
across southwestern Missouri and northwestern Arkansas where locally
backed surface flow yield a further enhancement to low-level
hodographs (around 70-75 0-1 km SRH recently sampled by the SGF
VAD). Rich moisture (PWATs of 1.75-2.0+ inches, as sampled by
regional 12z observed soundings) may also support occasional
water-loaded downbursts and isolated damaging wind gusts.

Convective trends will continue to be monitored, and a targeted
Tornado Watch may be considered for a portion of the discussion
area.

..Chalmers/Smith.. 06/07/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9CmbYr8nULNMTok0kcxeRvVgcSOIXM-7c3GO7vCPs7-Gsh1dbTxSmYZNMeGQG2KCdg20l1j1e= rv_ZQU1MGAfr8CowAw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...

LAT...LON 34079493 34539504 35509509 36969505 38169492 38699461
38929419 39099349 39109303 39049266 38539167 38269138
37879129 36859151 35599200 35119227 34499264 34019328
33869383 33869438 33909470 34079493=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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