ACUS11 KWNS 062343
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062343=20
NDZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-070145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1009
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0643 PM CDT Sat Jun 06 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern Montana and western North
Dakota

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 062343Z - 070145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and severe gusts are possible this evening
across portions of eastern Montana and western North Dakota. A watch
will likely be needed to cover this threat.

DISCUSSION...A surface low is centered over southeastern Montana
with a front extending northeastward into far northwestern North
Dakota and southeastern Saskatchewan. Aloft, a 50-60 kt mid-level
jet is encroaching upon the area, providing deep-layer shear
sufficient for supercells. Across the region, surface dewpoints are
generally in the mid to upper 50s. However, pocket of low 60s
surface dewpoints just east of the front is resulting in 3000+ J/kg
MLCAPE per mesoanalysis in northeastern Montana.

Storms have begun to develop in Montana with the lift from the jet
max, and convection should continue to increase in coverage through
the evening. East of the front, short-term RAP forecast profiles
show a deep, well-mixed boundary layer with strong flow aloft, which
may result in a threat for severe gusts and large hail this evening.
West of the front, mesoanalysis shows some inhibition, which may
temper the wind risk in these areas, particularly as inhibition
increases with loss of solar heating. However, stronger deep-layer
shear in this region along with a cooler column may result in a risk
for large hail. Storms east of the front may cluster with time and
grow upscale, given strong outflow and the focused surface lift.
Storms to the west may remain discrete longer.

..Supinie/Gleason.. 06/06/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8Q5ZsoPo_x0T3TLCSkFdfwiuHR2p8zNrBB5weJGiMBn3SVGPdzo4_KBw10GF-fOoBWy51QnvE= Cnlo5Jt_6UAChGC1Jw$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON 45290773 46010822 47900799 49140740 49170280 48760281
46910302 45570354 45100445 45080680 45290773=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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