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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0202

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Mar 11 02:54:44 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 110254
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 110254=20
    MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-110530-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0202
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0954 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

    Areas affected...much of eastern Oklahoma into southwest Missouri
    and far western Arkansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 110254Z - 110530Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A risk of damaging winds and tornadoes may develop into
    eastern Oklahoma, southwest Missouri and far western Arkansas this
    evening and overnight. A new watch will likely be needed.

    DISCUSSION...Several corridors of strong to severe storms are
    ongoing from southeast KS into southern OK and North TX. Much of
    this activity has become linear/MCS, though embedded cells are noted
    at times. The environment remains favorable for a continued severe
    risk across the remainder of eastern OK into adjacent states, with
    40-50 kt effective shear and a moist and unstable air mass. Further,
    low-level shear and SRH has increased markedly over the last few
    hours. For instance, the SGF VWP indicates over 500 m2/s2 0-1 SRH,
    with nearly 400 m2/s2 at INX which is conditionally favorable for
    strong tornadoes.

    Conditionally, if discrete cells can develop ahead of the
    approaching lines of storms, conditions would clearly favor
    tornadoes. If the storm mode remains largely linear, corridors of
    damaging winds and embedded mesocyclones may still yield a tornado.

    ..Jewell/Hart.. 03/11/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4THbEKeUu2TUBeYsBvzbnd5a3mLWHMhfz85sDS5g4MEcsWusn6vjvrAGHU8SQB0oChHTYRDmR= g6tI5EeO0md7q81Tdw$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...EAX...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 35309659 37339614 37879571 38079488 38069434 37819358
    37229334 36559337 34339433 33829481 33799549 33979649
    34659672 35309659=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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