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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0201

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Mar 11 01:57:27 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 110157
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 110157=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-110400-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0201
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0857 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

    Areas affected...North Texas into south-central Oklahoma

    Concerning...Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Watches 33...38...

    Valid 110157Z - 110400Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm
    Watches 33, 38 continues.

    SUMMARY...A corridor of damaging wind potential is evident over
    North Texas from the Metroplex into south-central Oklahoma. A
    tornado cannot be ruled out where cells are discrete.

    DISCUSSION...A squall line has become more organized this evening,
    with a prominent leading bow now moving across Wise and Parker
    counties in TX. Just ahead of this line, small convective elements
    are noted confirming increasing mesoscale lift and the unstable and
    uncapped air mass.

    The 00Z sounding at FWD shows robust instability with 2850 J/kg
    MLCAPE, and a long hodograph. Low-level shear has increased per VWPs
    this evening, aiding rightward storm propagation in the moist
    low-level environment.=20

    In addition tot the bow, other cells developing to the north will be
    monitored for further organization, including tornado potential as
    this area remains very moist and unstable with increasing low-level
    shear.

    ..Jewell.. 03/11/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!832Fzn6qce4HdENKhUbBWJJs4h97oGEwT8IQj1oiSqvaDV2FdsamDW_bxV3QkM0fO1L3q2z7T= LFyabLLxHYSh2JbLIg$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

    LAT...LON 33599785 33889751 34359726 34649715 34929691 34959651
    34829603 34459570 33919561 33379575 33339581 33079599
    32699651 32549701 32549798 33009777 33279781 33599785=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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