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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0198

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Mar 11 00:51:36 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 110051
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 110051=20
    INZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-110145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0198
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0751 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

    Areas affected...far southeastern Iowa across northern Illinois

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 32...

    Valid 110051Z - 110145Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 32 continues.

    SUMMARY...Several supercells on the immediate frontal zone will pose
    a continued risk for all hazards this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Multiple strong supercells have developed along the
    frontal zone this evening from extreme southeastern IA into northern
    As of 0045 UTC, radar and surface data shows most of the storms
    remain on the immediate cool side of the front/modified outflow
    boundary. To the south of the front, robust surface-based buoyancy
    and very strong low-level shear remain in place supportive of all
    severe hazards.

    Current forecast guidance and observational trends suggest these
    storms may briefly become surface-based this evening as they catch
    up to the surface front. This appears most likely with the storms to
    the southwest of the main cluster (Stark/Marshal Counties IL).
    Should this occur, an STP environment of 2-4 would support the risk
    for tornadoes, some of which could be strong to intense, along with
    very large hail.

    Additional storms moving out of eastern MO may move into southern
    portions of WW32 this evening. This would continue to support a risk
    for all hazards into tonight.

    ..Lyons.. 03/11/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!6zjosMqF-RhyZgWnTnoe5SHKDUFJ6YMrDgdzjZm0_bLkPnkzBEAmjRxmPmV7s1ClCEorOcvX_= ebbzB3oJIhxjGeTcXU$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

    LAT...LON 40689207 41239097 41318933 41448795 41308748 40918740
    40678744 40508797 40318935 40159030 40099080 40129106
    40159140 40689207=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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