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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0196

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Mar 11 00:21:51 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 110021
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 110021=20
    MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-110145-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0196
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0721 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

    Areas affected...eastern Iowa northern Illinois far southern
    Wisconsin into southern Lower Michigan

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 35...

    Valid 110021Z - 110145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 35
    continues.

    SUMMARY...Numerous supercells will remain capable of significant
    hail this evening. Damaging gusts may also be possible as storms
    conglomerate tonight.

    DISCUSSION...As of 0015 UTC, regional radar imagery showed numerous thunderstorms ongoing along and north of the warm frontal zone into
    parts of IA/IL/WI and MI. Most of these storms are on the cool side
    of the boundary and will remain so this evening. Robust MUCAPE
    (1000-2000J/kg) and strong deep-layer shear will continue to support
    strong supercells over much of WW35.

    Given the degree of buoyancy large hail is likely. Isolated very
    large hail is also possible with more intense cluster of supercells
    on the immediate cool side of the warm front in northern IL as well.
    With time, upscale growth into small bowing segments with some
    potential for damaging gusts is expected tonight. The severe risk
    should continue to increase over much of WW35 this evening. WW35 has
    been locally extended farther east across portions of the GRR CWA.

    ..Lyons.. 03/11/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!9wNIWzWdKOV4NBB5Wi2zKl4K2Oq8uRWANyF3i5F1dToSL_QHp49EXHf4VtsvNcRtmxn-59cfI= T6YgMXKfaf3Ff4J6CE$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...

    LAT...LON 41929170 42559109 43228751 43538498 43488451 42118433
    42088555 41988617 41838698 41468748 41258850 40998978
    41069080 41349154 41929170=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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