ACUS11 KWNS 102324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102324=20
TXZ000-110130-

Mesoscale Discussion 0193
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0624 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Areas affected...western North TX southward toward the Rio Grande
Valley

Concerning...Tornado Watch 31...

Valid 102324Z - 110130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 31 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for damaging hail, wind, and a few tornadoes
persist within the entire watch area.

DISCUSSION...Scattered storms extend from western North TX all the
way south toward the Del Rio vicinity, where a massive supercell is
producing significant hail and a tornado. Another cell with a
history of tornadoes east of Abilene is near the KDYX radar. In
between these cells, a broken line of storms extends south along the
length of the dryline.=20

The air mass east of this region remain quite unstable for this time
of year, with MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg and effective deep-layer shear
over 50 kt. 0-1 SRH is not particularly strong, but in the 100-150
m2/s2 range which will still support a tornado risk. Given the mixed
storm modes, all hazards remain possible in the near term.

..Jewell/Hart.. 03/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4vHhSnkPzDeUgZgnw711WXdFHvQTJrC3_1tx1iHw8aRYrdEJLLHoBBL-EYxlAU5eqH6MieWqx= 3FbGrvr0GAjZU_i01I$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 29750144 31240055 32220000 32699944 33009851 32819797
31969822 30939879 29879922 29509945 29320006 29300097
29750144=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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