ACUS11 KWNS 102154
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102153=20
MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-102330-

Mesoscale Discussion 0191
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0453 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern Iowa into northern Illinois and southwestern lower Michigan.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 102153Z - 102330Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Scattered elevated supercells and bowing segments appear
likely this afternoon/evening north of the east-west warm front. A
risk for significant hail and damaging gusts is possible. A WW is
likely needed shortly.

DISCUSSION...As of 2145 UTC, mesoanalysis and radar observations
showed an east-west oriented warm front stretching from eastern IA,
across northern IL into southern lower MI. South of the front,
temperatures in the 70s and 80s F amid mid to upper 60s F surface
dewpoints are supporting moderate to large buoyancy of 2000-3000
J/kg of MLCAPE. Strong destabilization is also ongoing in an
elevated manner along and north of the boundary with 1500-2500 J/kg
of MUCAPE despite cooler surface temperatures. Strong mid-level flow
is overspreading the boundary supporting deep veering wind profiles
supportive of organized severe storms.

Weak surface convergence southeast of the front has ignited several
supercells across northern IL this afternoon. As storms cross out of
the Tornado Watch and the front, they will become elevated. With
robust buoyancy and deep-layer shear greater than 50 kt, they are
likely to remain intense and capable of large to very large hail.
Recent CAM guidance and surface convergence near a surface low in
IA/MO suggest numerous storms will develop within the elevated
regime over the next few hours.=20

With time, these initial supercells are likely to grow upscale into
elevated bows or clusters with a continued hail threat and possibly
damaging winds associated with strong gravity waves propagating
along the top of the stable surface layer. Given the increasing
severe threat, a new WW is likely needed for eastern IA into
northern IL and portions of western lower MI.

..Lyons/Hart.. 03/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!-t5cNJmksOeOZEIV8Bm0a9PvkFQQsGsdQ64UXATkmMmcnbUpAPXOEzLzaFkrnlKqlydUibcPc= i-L-M3Guy5o4eHGm6k$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...MKX...DVN...

LAT...LON 41359124 41339201 41879171 42459083 42598948 42718788
42738720 42758604 42728566 42238543 41928552 41688609
41378815 41359124=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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