1. Forum
  2. FIDO
  3. WEATHER

  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0190

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Mar 10 21:52:15 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 102152
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 102151=20
    MOZ000-KSZ000-OKZ000-110015-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0190
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0451 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

    Areas affected...far northern Oklahoma into much of southern and
    eastern Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 102151Z - 110015Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are forecast to increase from northwest Oklahoma
    into south-central and eastern Kansas, with large hail, damaging
    winds, and a few tornadoes possible.

    DISCUSSION...A boundary currently extends southwestward from the low
    in northwest MO, demarcating the warm and moist air mass to the
    south. This boundary is relatively stationary, and is not expected
    to move much this evening.

    As such, the ongoing cells will likely increase in intensity and
    coverage as they travel roughly along the boundary. Lapse rates and
    shear are all favorable for damaging hail, and even significant
    damaging gusts. Mixed-storm modes will be possible over time, but
    the increasing 850 mb winds this evening may still yield a risk of
    tornadoes. Given the steep lapse rates aloft, the area will need to
    be monitored this evening for strong tornado potential into
    southeast Kansas area.

    ..Jewell/Hart.. 03/10/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8XWctZva52Qm2UTTJrBBercfaWgCFsq78kJ6zOVkvLhtr17-YD2vApaMTjmMQ5T0HDnNEOc3I= DXh5IvvNwVW-vzZ8-Y$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

    LAT...LON 36399911 36389974 36669985 37179894 37979747 39449510
    39509465 39289431 38179438 37399477 37059538 36719700
    36399911=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

    --- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
    * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/107)