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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0189

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/107 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Mar 10 21:32:31 2026
    ACUS11 KWNS 102132
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 102132=20
    OKZ000-TXZ000-110000-

    Mesoscale Discussion 0189
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0432 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

    Areas affected...much of central Oklahoma into western North Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 102132Z - 110000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms are expected to form over the next
    few hours from western North Texas into Oklahoma. Large damaging
    hail, destructive winds, and tornadoes will all be possible.

    DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery across the region clearly
    shows an uncapped and unstable air mass from much of OK into TX
    along and east of a dryline. Dewpoints have held in the mid to upper
    60s, results into over 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Wind profiles are very
    favorable for supercells, with 50 kt effective bulk shear oriented
    favorably to the dryline, and, SRH is expected to increase this
    evening, enhancing supercell and tornado risk.

    Given long hodographs with nearly 100 kt in the upper levels, steep
    lapse rates and ample moisture, very large destructive hail will be
    possible. A strong tornado may occur as well especially this
    evening and before convective merges into a possible severe MCS.

    ..Jewell/Hart.. 03/10/2026

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5RoulF1myA4Pl0ur6KPvtDJ_cDuXq6htDCddD25BCIxG8DuxLHUPlCB73NkLi3Z28Z8bDivSj= Eo8XihiqkSCiKpZ1cc$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

    LAT...LON 33009933 34159887 35299862 36019845 36489784 36589748
    36509687 36009628 35309608 34209610 33319668 32639748
    32239820 32049874 32119920 33009933=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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