ACUS11 KWNS 092305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092305=20
GAZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-100030-

Mesoscale Discussion 0182
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0605 PM CDT Mon Mar 09 2026

Areas affected...portions of northern Mississippi and Alabama into
northwestern Georgia.

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 29...30...

Valid 092305Z - 100030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 29, 30
continues.

SUMMARY...A loosely organized convective complex may gradually
consolidate as it tracks eastward over the next few hours with a
continued severe risk. A few stronger embedded cells will likely
pose the main threat in the short term.

DISCUSSION...As of 2300 UTC, regional mesoanalysis showed a broad
cluster of thunderstorms ongoing from northern MS into AL. So far
the cluster has remained loosely organized, but with subtle
intensification trend noted with numerous storms ongoing within a
broad corridor of low-level warm air advection ahead of a subtle
shortwave trough. A few stronger embedded supercells have also
emerged early this evening across northern MS and AL within moderate
buoyancy (MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg) and favorable deep-layer shear for
organized storms including supercells or organized multi cells. In
the short term, the severe potential appears highest with these
storms in the form of damaging gusts, hail and possibly a brief
tornado. With time, the cluster may consolidate into a more
organized cluster/bowing segment with severe potential expected to
continue eastward across AL into northern GA, possibly associated
with a weak developing MCV within the broader thunderstorm cluster.


In addition to the recent mesoanalysis trends, recent CAM guidance
also shows the potential for upscale growth of the complex into a
loosely organized MCS or bowing cluster across northeastern AL into Northwestern GA later this evening. While buoyancy will decrease
with eastward extent, dry low and mid-levels could support stronger
downdrafts with damaging gusts should a more organized bowing system
develop. Given this, the severe weather threat appears likely to
continue over much of WW29 and WW30 this evening. WW30 may be
locally extended in area over western GA to account for the
continued risk of damaging winds later this evening.

..Lyons/Hart.. 03/09/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!5SVf9CCgjF_yfE_PQCRgJAs_33Mli5f33HjWFnxqBKdc__RKhtXa5yfzSptnZmZX4OsmNZ9Cj= 2kIum90qbjppjIzSdY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 34658755 34988668 34888528 34638462 34418421 34008404
33028424 32768466 32678569 32898730 33078852 33478955
33568972 33948969 34118948 34318934 34518869 34578808
34658755=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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