ACUS11 KWNS 100040
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 100040=20
ALZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-100245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0016
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0640 PM CST Fri Jan 09 2026

Areas affected...portions of eastern Texas...Louisiana...and
southern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 100040Z - 100245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...A gradual increase in storm intensity is expected this
evening and tonight over portions of the Sabine and lower MS
Valleys. A mix of supercells and linear segments will likely support
a risk for damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes. One or more
watches are likely in the next hour or two.

DISCUSSION...As of 0130 UTC, regional radar and mesoanalysis showed
scattered convection ongoing within a very moist and broad warm
sector from east TX into LA and across southern MS. Over the last 2
hours, convection within this region has slowly intensified as a
positive-tilt upper trough over the southern Plains has moved
eastward. Continued ascent and convective development within the
warm sector appears likely this evening given robust moisture and
buoyancy (MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg LIX/LCH RAOBs) with little to no
inhibition remaining.

Overall forcing is still somewhat nebulous and driven primarily by
low-level warm advection. This suggests storm evolution is likely to
be slow until the upper trough moves closer. Initial storm evolution
is expected along low-level confluence structures and the cold front
over eastern TX. Deep-layer shear (50-60 kt) oriented largely
parallel to these features is favorable for storm organization, but
with a mixed convective mode of supercells and linear segments. This
will favor a risk for damaging gusts given strong mid and low-level
flow.

While initially somewhat weaker, low-level flow/shear should
increase this evening as large-scale ascent from the approaching
upper trough and nocturnal low-level jet intensify across LA and MS.
Peak SRH (0-500m) of 100-150 m2/s2 will support low-level rotation
and the potential for a couple tornadoes as well. This appears
especially likely along the diffuse warm front where weak pressure
falls are occurring and low-level winds are backed.

Observational trends and short-term model guidance suggest
convection will gradually increase in coverage and intensity this
evening. As storms mature a severe threat should evolve and
transition northeastward tonight. Given the potential for damaging
gusts and a couple tornadoes, one or more watches is likely needed
in the next hour or two.

..Lyons/Gleason.. 01/10/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4fppQQj7UVM-eWzc-BDHN1P9I-gYmpOlLAYm7QbS1VK5PfW7oNLHcoP7N9AHksK6ir_wA8BKh= o0EobzC8xl8CWFoCZs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...

LAT...LON 30409384 30789411 31389416 31939382 32509255 32269018
32078938 31848874 31378844 31028868 30509099 30479125
30369211 30369339 30409384=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN


=3D =3D =3D
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
* Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)