ACUS11 KWNS 082115
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082114=20
MOZ000-ILZ000-ARZ000-082315-

Mesoscale Discussion 0010
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0314 PM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

Areas affected...Northern Arkansas into eastern Missouri and
southwest Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

Valid 082114Z - 082315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A strong/severe thunderstorm or two will be possible
through late afternoon and early evening across parts of northern
Arkansas into eastern Missouri and far southwest Illinois. Storm
coverage is expected to be sufficiently limited to preclude watch
issuance, but trends will be monitored.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows gradual vertical development
of cumulus along a trailing surface trough from southwest MO into
western AR. So far, this activity has been too shallow/weak to
produce lightning - likely owing to a combination of very modest
buoyancy profiles, lingering inhibition near 750 mb (evidenced by
residual low/mid-level stratus to the east and sampled by the 18z
LZK sounding), and decreasing forcing for ascent as the primary
synoptic wave lifts to the north. However, latest mesoanalysis
depicts a plume of low-level theta-e advection immediately
downstream of this shallow convective band. Within this regime
dewpoints have been very slowly increasing into the low/mid 60s with
cloud breaks in northern AR supporting pockets of modest heating
(temperatures up to around 70 F). As such, the downstream
thermodynamic environment is slowly evolving to become more
supportive of deep convection.=20

Strong low-level shear within the lowest few kilometers sampled by
the 18z LZK sounding and recent KLZK VWP observations suggest that
organized convection, including supercells, are possible if
convection can become sufficiently deep to realize the full
kinematic profile. Confidence in this potential remains limited,
however, due to the aforementioned limitations to deep convection.
Recent deterministic CAM guidance also shows limited confidence with
most solutions depicting weak/transient UH/updraft signals across
the region while a few - notably the more aggressive RRFS - depict
the potential for more robust, albeit very isolated, convection.
While watch issuance is not currently anticipated, trends will
continue to be monitored given the very favorable kinematic
environment.

..Moore/Smith.. 01/08/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7OWIskMirRgx7t1al-2c4jTkEiGXT6gT_Y4rp7yCobPQP84SHpPSYnZINn0hD3TG11bkXAVJ9= qMepU_PJIMtj9B-FVY$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON 35899372 38749198 39069180 39259153 39279025 39208994
38948984 38068968 37798971 37628990 35769144 35559178
35539218 35509362 35609378 35899372=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH


=3D =3D =3D
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