ACUS11 KWNS 081508
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081508=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-081715-

Mesoscale Discussion 0008
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0908 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

Areas affected...Northeast Oklahoma into adjacent portions of
Missouri and Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 1...

Valid 081508Z - 081715Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1 continues.

SUMMARY...The threat for severe wind gusts and brief tornadoes will
continue into the late morning hours for northeast Oklahoma and
adjacent portions of Missouri and Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...VWP observations from KINX in northeast OK depict a
steady increase in low-level flow up to 50-60 knots within the 0-2
km AGL layer over the past 90 minutes. This is enlarging low-level
hodographs with 0-1 km SRH increasing upwards of 400 m2/s2
immediately preceding developing warm-advection-driven convection
and the more established squall line coming out of central OK.
Similarly, the KTLX VWP in central OK is sampling the passage of a
75-80 knot mid-level jet that is supporting not only intense
deep-layer wind shear but also strong ascent over northeast OK.
These strong kinematics should compensate for an otherwise meager
thermodynamic environment (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) and will continue to
support the potential for brief tornadoes as well as severe wind
gusts.=20

In the short term, the greatest severe wind/tornado threat will
likely be associated with the more organized portion of the squall
line (currently in Osage/Washington counties, OK) as it moves
east/northeast over the next couple of hours. The loosely organized
convection to the southeast of the Tulsa metro will likely undergo
further organization with an increasing wind/tornado threat within
the next couple of hours as a convective band becomes established.

..Moore.. 01/08/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4aGfrpkfL9rAVTePoAI0ZgK0wmh5Ks0CeMGbOo4viq_rS9bO9go0_EP0KAwOYb8SsGtcHCgFd= ag1RRcahkaQXZuY5kE$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON 35539430 35119601 35229615 35369621 36699629 36849631
36989631 37049618 37229484 37149432 36939407 36379393
35759410 35539430=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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