ACUS11 KWNS 081141
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081141=20
OKZ000-TXZ000-081345-

Mesoscale Discussion 0006
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0541 AM CST Thu Jan 08 2026

Areas affected...Northwest Texas to north-central Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 081141Z - 081345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible this
morning.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms coverage has increased across West Texas
and into Oklahoma this morning as isentropic ascent has strengthened
with 1km flow now approaching 50 knots on the TLX VWP. Within this
zone, MUCAPE around 1000 J/kg and effective shear of 55-60 knots
will support some storm organization and stronger cells capable of
isolated large hail. In addition, 61 to 63F dewpoints have spread
northward across much of Oklahoma which has eroded inhibition across
the state with around 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE. Overall, a messy storm
mode and weak low-level lapse rates should limit the overall threat. Nonetheless, given the veered low-level wind profile, a brief
tornado and/or gusty winds cannot be ruled out if a more established storm/mesocyclone can develop.

..Bentley/Mosier.. 01/08/2026

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!4MCXauEPAApTwwRjrMw3OOHyLtyOxt0XiUyivAiKUpralSqDsPoXrdd_aGiwSq74VLGBNalLx= qXT9cYmtkcMNiwRHqk$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

LAT...LON 34999604 33609779 33159892 33189943 34199955 34649945
35589863 36249770 36869707 36849630 35989581 34999604=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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