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  • MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2223

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Nov 24 19:08:25 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 241908
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 241907=20
    LAZ000-TXZ000-242030-

    Mesoscale Discussion 2223
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0107 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

    Areas affected...portions of east-central into southeast Texas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 638...

    Valid 241907Z - 242030Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 638 continues.

    SUMMARY...A few tornadoes remain possible with ongoing storms across east-central into southeastern Texas.

    DISCUSSION...Supercell structures have percolated in intensity along
    a confluence band within the free warm sector, ahead of a surface
    cold front. Ahead of the storms, surface temperatures have warmed
    well into the 70s F (near 80 F in the Houston area), with dewpoints
    in the upper 60s to low 70s F noted. However, regional VADs have
    shown relatively short hodographs with modest curvature, which may
    be limiting tornado potential up to this point. Nonetheless, an
    uptick in tornado development may occur over the next couple of
    hours. A particular region of concern would be over the northern
    Houston metropolitan area, where regional/terminal radar data shows
    the intensification of a supercell amid a moderately unstable
    airmass, with a 30+ kt rotational velocity noted with the 1903Z 0.5
    degree KHGX velocity scan.

    ..Squitieri.. 11/24/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!92ql2ub97WBP9sZztMC0ZqCW-mXt4lCa2W4Yky4hDzvw-bxWCeIp3Qv7vIyQoN_S5AGbvOad3= yuiuF8-6PtK5Wd0WpQ$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...

    LAT...LON 29659616 29759624 29929622 30079617 30459610 31049608
    31299616 31449620 31589622 31719622 31779620 31849612
    32029562 32309498 32279492 32339432 32209370 31949336
    31459333 30909363 30229396 29929437 29719496 29629548
    29609576 29659616=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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