ACUS11 KWNS 232331
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232330=20
TXZ000-240130-

Mesoscale Discussion 2219
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0530 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Areas affected...Portions of the Permian Basin and the Edwards
Plateau

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637...

Valid 232330Z - 240130Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 637
continues.

SUMMARY...Strong/severe thunderstorms remain probable in the coming
hours across portions of the Permian Basin/Edwards Plateau where the
convective environment remains very favorable for organized
convection.

DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery from KMAF shows a broken line of thunderstorms between the I-20 and I-10 corridors west of the San
Angelo, TX region. While most cells remain fairly weak, a leading
supercell has shown periodic intensification and a persistent,
albeit weak, mid-level mesocyclone. Despite the meager intensity
thus far, these cells are beginning to move into the axis of better
low-level moisture where MLCAPE is regionally maximized (between
1000-1500 J/kg). Regional VWPs continue to sample elongated
hodographs featuring 0-6 km BWD values on the order of 50-60 knots.
As such, the regionally best convective environment remains
immediately downstream of ongoing cells, which may support an uptick
in convective intensity in the coming hours. Additionally, new
updraft development is noted in IR imagery on the southwestern flank
of the broken band, hinting that an increase in thunderstorm
coverage is probable. Recent CAM solutions support this idea and
suggest thunderstorm coverage may be maximized in the coming hours.

..Moore.. 11/23/2025

...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!7Mor-NaUYpVuWr-1KhbUXmgkSapc5WflBOuDqGWqxixiZedPDDsguHRWW9Z1m6d1skr_Qh5P0= ZLH1U1Jd1WP_1phGhs$ for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

LAT...LON 29870237 30050267 30310288 30630303 30900301 31170284
32090178 32290156 32370112 32340062 32240020 31979993
31499984 31119989 30850004 30200066 29930102 29750137
29730168 29760203 29870237=20

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN


=3D =3D =3D
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