ACUS01 KWNS 111712
SWODY1
SPC AC 111710

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1210 PM CDT Thu Sep 11 2025

Valid 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

CORRECTED FOR PROB GRAPHICS

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected over eastern Montana
into western North Dakota late this afternoon through the evening.
The primary hazards are severe wind gusts and large hail.

...Synopsis...
Water-vapor imagery shows a large cyclone over the West with a
downstream ridge over the Great Plains, and a trough centered over
the Lower Great Lakes. Southwesterly mid to high-level flow extends
from the base of the larger-scale western U.S. trough northeastward
through the Great Basin and into the northern Great Plains. A
mid-level disturbance implied in water-vapor imagery over western
WY, is forecast to move northeast into eastern MT/western ND towards
this evening.

In the low levels, a plume of seasonably rich moisture will protrude
northward from the central Plains into the Dakotas and eastern MT.
A lee trough will extend southward from a surface low over the
northern High Plains.

...Rockies into the northern Plains...
An ongoing cluster of thunderstorms associated with warm-air
advection near the ND/Manitoba border will continue to move
east-northeastward into southern Canada ahead of a pair of MCVs over
western ND/eastern MT. Diurnal heating over the higher terrain from
near the Four Corners northward into southern MT will favor
scattered thunderstorms developing during the midday into the early
afternoon. Storm coverage will increase further over the central
Rockies during the afternoon, with the stronger storms capable of an
isolated hail/wind threat. As the airmass destabilizes over the
plains, particularly across eastern MT within the moist plume
primarily north of the surface low, isolated to scattered storms are
forecast by mid to late afternoon. This initial activity will
probably develop near the MT/WY border with upscale growth into a
cluster possible during the evening. Deep-layer shear supporting
organized storm modes coupled with steep lapse rates, will combine
to aid in several stronger storms capable of a hail/wind threat.
The wind threat will probably continue into ND during the evening
within the terminus region of a 35-40 kt southerly LLJ. A gradual
transition to increasingly elevated convection is expected late as
convective inhibition increases and the overall severe risk lessens.

..15_ows.. 09/11/2025

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 250620
SWODY1
SPC AC 250618

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1218 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN GULF COAST STATES...

CORRECTED FOR SUBSECTION HEADLINE

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the eastern Gulf
Coast states this morning and afternoon. Damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes are the main concerns.

...Gulf Coast States...

Southern Plains short-wave trough is forecast to eject across the
Arklatex early in the period as a 100+kt 500mb speed max translates
across northern MS, then increases to near 130kt over WV by 26/00z.
Modest midlevel height falls will spread across the Gulf states and
a strong LLJ will respond just downstream from northern AL into the
Middle Atlantic. Associated polar front will surge into MS/southern
LA by sunrise then shift into AL by 18z. Latest model guidance
suggests modified Gulf air mass will advance inland ahead of the
surging boundary such that weak buoyancy will develop within roughly
100mi of the Gulf coast. Forecast soundings suggest SBCAPE on the
order of 500 J/kg could be noted prior to frontal passage where
surface dew points rise into the mid-upper 60s. Given the deep layer
shear, convection that develops within this environment would have
some potential to organize with some supercell risk. For these
reasons have maintained SLGT risk near the Gulf coast to account for morning-afternoon thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Damaging
winds and perhaps a few tornadoes are the primary concerns.

..Darrow/Thornton.. 01/25/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 172014
SWODY1
SPC AC 172013

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0213 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL
CALIFORNIA AND PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND IOWA...

CORRECTED FOR NDFD COLOR FILL ISSUE

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the
West today through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are also
anticipated across the Upper Midwest late this afternoon and
tonight.

...Eastern Nebraska and southwestern Iowa...
Near the base of a negative-tilt shortwave trough and a pronounced
100+ kt mid-level jet, strong ascent is expected to develop late
this afternoon amid a mixed and modestly moist air mass. Cool
mid-level temperatures and surface dewpoints in the 40s and 50s F
may allow a few hundred J/kg of buoyancy to develop. This
destabilization and strong ascent may support a fast-moving arc of
high-based showers/thunderstorms, particularly where surface
temperatures reach into the 60s and dewpoints hold above 40 F.

While buoyancy will be weak, dry low-levels and strong
dynamics/background flow could support efficient downward mixing of
momentum to the surface. Isolated severe/damaging gusts are possible
this afternoon and evening from parts of eastern NE into
west-central IA. Convection should weaken rapidly with eastward
extent

Elsewhere, isolated strong storms remain possible across portions of
the CA coast ahead of a strong secondary upper trough. This is most
likely overnight with a few damaging gusts or a brief tornado the
primary risks owing to very strong flow and modest inland moisture
advection. No changes were made to the outlook here, see the prior
discussion for more info.

..Lyons.. 02/17/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026/

...Synopsis...
Recent satellite imagery shows several disturbances across the
western CONUS, including a pair of low-amplitude shortwave troughs
within the belt of strong southwesterly flow extending from the
central Pacific into the central Plains and a deepening upper low
off the Pacific Northwest coast. Intense surface cyclogenesis is
anticipated ahead of the lead shortwave as it moves quickly
northeastward, with the resulting surface low forecast to move
across SD/NE, ending the period over southern MN. Evolution of this
surface low and parent shortwave, which will become increasingly
negatively tilted throughout the day and overnight, will result in
strong forcing for ascent from the Mid MO Valley into the Upper
Midwest this evening and overnight.

Farther west, the previously mentioned upper low is expected to drop
slowly southward as a strong jet (i.e. 100 kt at 500 mb) pivots
around its western and southern periphery. Very cold mid-level
temperatures and strong/persistent forcing for ascent will support
isolated thunderstorms along across much of the West coast
throughout the day and tonight.

...Coastal California...
Limited buoyancy is expected to develop along the near coastal areas
of CA as very cold mid-level temperatures (i.e. -25 to -30 deg C at
500 mb) associated with the upper low continue to advect into the
region. This buoyancy coupled with the strong forcing for ascent
could result in some deeper, more persistent updrafts across the
region today, both within the primary frontal band and any more
bowing line segments that may follow it. Given the robust deep layer
flow across the region, any deeper, more persistent updrafts could
result in some stronger, convectively augmented gusts. Additionally,
there appears to be enough low-level curvature to support a brief
tornado or two within the immediate coastal regions. Highest
potential for either hazards currently appears to be after 00Z in
the San Luis Obispo/Santa Barbara county areas.

...Upper Midwest...
Some low-level moisture return is anticipated across the region
ahead of the previously mentioned shortwave trough and associated
forcing for ascent. Even so, low-level moisture will still be
limited, with dewpoints likely remaining in the upper 40s to perhaps
low 50s. This is not expected to be enough moisture for surface
destabilization across most of the region, despite strong surface heating/boundary-layer mixing and steepening low-level lapse rates
in vicinity of the surface low/front. The only exception is across
far southeast SD and far northeast NE where a high-based storm or
two cannot be completely ruled out. Any that does develop could
produce an strong gust or two, although coverage will likely remain
less than 10%.

Across the Upper Midwest, capping may tend to largely prevail during
the day, with elevated thunderstorms becoming more probable
east-northeastward of IA into the MN/WI throughout the evening and
overnight. Instability does not appear strong enough to support
severe hail with this elevated activity.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 200546
SWODY1
SPC AC 200545

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1145 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINES

...SUMMARY...
Widely-scattered thunderstorms may occur today over parts of the
Southeast and Mid Atlantic. Severe storms are not forecast.

...Synopsis/Discussion...
A shortwave trough will move quickly across the Great Lakes and into
the Northeast, with a surface low developing off the coastal Mid
Atlantic. Over land, a cold front will push east across VA and the
Carolinas, with rapid drying from the west. Despite this, a few showers/thunderstorms will be possible prior to the front moving
offshore. Warm profiles aloft suggest weak storms, but strong
westerlies just off the surface could support gusty winds.

To the south, the tail end of this front will stall in east-west
fashion across LA and southern MS/AL/GA. This boundary will move
northward overnight across parts of MS/AL/GA, with increasing
southwest flow at 850 mb ahead of another wave moving across the
southern Plains. Meanwhile, height tendencies aloft will be neutral.
While showers and a few thunderstorms may occur in this warm
advection regime late in the day and overnight, it appears warm
profiles aloft should reduce hail potential despite strong
deep-layer shear.

..Jewell/Halbert.. 02/20/2026

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 212023
SWODY1
SPC AC 212021

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Valid 212000Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES...

CORRECTED FOR GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINE ERROR

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong/severe thunderstorms remain possible across parts of
the Southeast this afternoon and evening.

...Southeast States...
Other than trimming risk areas behind the sagging cold front, no
important changes have been made to the ongoing forecast.

..Hart.. 02/21/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026/

...Southeast States...
A well-defined surface baroclinic zone extends from southern LA/MS east-northeastward into parts of AL/GA/SC today. To the south of
the boundary, a rather warm/moist and unstable air mass is present
with dewpoints in the upper 60s and afternoon MLCAPE values of
1000-1500 J/kg. This will lead to occasional thunderstorms along
the boundary through the day and into the evening. Low-level winds
are veered, limiting convergence and vertical shear. However,
occasional small bowing structures will be possible today capable of
gusty or locally damaging wind gusts. Also, modest mid-level lapse
rates and cool temperatures aloft might result in a report or two of
hail. Refer to MCD #110 for further short-term details.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 032034
SWODY1
SPC AC 032032

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 PM CST Tue Mar 03 2026

Valid 032000Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MISSOURI AND WESTERN ILLINOIS...

CORRECTED FOR TESTING THE CORRECTION PROCESS

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe hail may occur this evening into the overnight hours
across parts of the southern/central Plains into Missouri and
western Illinois.

...20z Update...
The Marginal Risk continues across parts of the southern/central
Plains into Missouri and western Illinois. Moisture continues
northward, observed in visible satellite and 60 F dew points
increasing from the south into southern Kansas. Thunderstorm
development is still expected to be delayed into the evening as
modest capping remains in place. Some conditional risk for large
hail (some up to 1.5-2" in diameter) will be possible, mainly across
northwest Oklahoma into southern Kansas. In this region, a favorable
overlap of MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/kg will overlap with steep
mid-level lapse rates and deep layer shear near the frontal
boundary.

..Thornton.. 03/03/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Tue Mar 03 2026/

...Southern/Central Plains into Missouri and Western Illinois...
Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough
over the central Rockies and this feature will move into the central
High Plains late tonight. A frontal zone this morning is draped
from near the Raton Mesa into the TX Panhandle extends
east-northeastward across northern OK into the Ozarks. A weak
surface low over northeast NM and the OK/TX Panhandles this morning
will gradually develop towards northwest TX by this evening.
Southerly low-level flow will maintain a moist fetch into OK today
and into the Ozarks and parts of the mid MS Valley. A dryline is
forecast to mix eastward across the southern High Plains by late
this afternoon, intersecting the surface front in the northwest
TX/southwest OK vicinity.

Convection will likely be inhibited during the day across much of
the MRGL Risk owing to both capping and weak mid-level shortwave
ridging. The strongest heating and low-level convergence is
forecast across parts of northwest TX/southwest OK where convective
inhibition will become weakened by late afternoon. Have adjusted
severe hail probabilities farther south into parts of northwest TX
to account for the potential for a supercell or two this evening
into the overnight hours. As large-scale forcing for ascent
continues to strengthen through the evening into the overnight,
expected widely scattered thunderstorms to eventually develop near
the frontal zone (perhaps favoring a northwest OK/southern KS
corridor). Large hail will be the hazard with the stronger storms.
Around 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE, steepened mid-level lapse rates,
and strong effective bulk shear suggest that some of these cells may
pose a threat for isolated severe hail as they spread from OK/KS
into MO and western IL through early Wednesday morning.

$$

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ACUS01 KWNS 072039
SWODY1
SPC AC 072037

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0237 PM CST Sat Mar 07 2026

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF TEXAS TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/TENNESSEE VALLEY AND UPPER OHIO
VALLEY...

CORRECTED FOR LINE PLACEMENT ERROR

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely today across parts of Ohio
into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania/New York, and from
portions of Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-South.
Damaging winds should be the main threat for most areas, but large
hail may occur across parts of Texas, and a few tornadoes are
possible in the upper Ohio Valley.

...20z Update...
No major changes were made to the D1 Convective Outlook. Main edits
with this update were to remove probabilities behind the main lines
of storms across the Northeast and from the Mid-South into the
Southern Plains.

Across the Northeast, a broken line of storms continues
northeastward, with a few leading line supercell structures ongoing.
The environment ahead of this line continues to destabilize with
daytime heating in combination with continued strong flow aloft
promoting an uptick in storm organization. See MCD#167 for more
information.

From the Ohio Valley to Mid-South the Gulf States and into the far
eastern Southern Plains, a line of storms continues southeastward
this afternoon, with showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of
this line within the warm sector. The environment ahead of this line
is very moist and unstable. Further south, there is some
displacement from the strongest winds aloft, though deep layer shear
remains favorable. See MCD#168 for more information.

See previous discussion below for more information.

..Thornton.. 03/07/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CST Sat Mar 07 2026/

...Ohio Valley to Western Pennsylvania/New York...
A loosely organized linear band of currently non-strong
thunderstorms, which is effectively augmenting the cold front,
continues generally eastward at midday toward Lake Erie/central Ohio
and across northern Kentucky. Ample insolation is occurring per
visible satellite ahead of this convection across eastern portions
of Kentucky/Ohio into West Virginia and western Pennsylvania, with
surface dewpoints generally climbing through the upper 50s F. This
scenario will quickly erode remaining convective inhibition, with
thunderstorms expected to increase and intensify through
mid-afternoon.

As storms develop/mature, strong cyclonically influenced flow aloft
(45+ kt effective shear) will support both supercells and well-organized/fast-moving clusters in the presence of a 40-50 kt
southwesterly low-level jet, with notable 50-65 kt winds around 3km
AGL/700 mb. These storms will be capable of scattered
severe/damaging winds as they move quickly east-northeastward across
the region. The potential also exists for line-embedded and/or
supercell tornadoes given the degree of 0-2km AGL shear/SRH. This
convection is forecast to weaken this evening as it moves into the
higher terrain of the Appalachians and encounters a much less
unstable airmass.

...Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Mid-South...
At late morning, extensive linear bands of convection are
principally located near the southeastward-advancing cold front from
the Mid-South/Memphis vicinity southwestward to the ArkLaTex and
central Texas, with some stronger/occasional hail-capable
post-frontal elevated convection noted across parts of the Edwards
Plateau and Low Rolling Plains. Damaging winds will remain the most
common hazard across the Mid-South/parts of Kentucky and ArkLaMiss
vicinity as convection moves/develops into a gradually destabilizing
air mass regionally.

Potential for supercells is more apparent across parts of Texas,
where steep mid-level lapse rates, greater MUCAPE, and modestly
enhanced mid/upper-level flow, and related deep-layer shear, will
support the potential for primarily large hail. This supercell hail
potential should be maximized across south-central Texas potentially
including parts of the Hill County/Brush Country toward the Rio
Grande.

$$

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