• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1944

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Aug 14 19:38:00 2025
    ACUS11 KWNS 141937
    SWOMCD
    SPC MCD 141937=20
    MNZ000-142130-

    Mesoscale Discussion 1944
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0237 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

    Areas affected...southwest to central MN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 141937Z - 142130Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat might develop before early
    evening within a few cells shifting slowly east from southwest
    Minnesota. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Along the backside of a remnant MCV moving from
    south-central to southeast MN, lower-level warm theta-e advection
    has persisted across southwest MN. A belt of 40-45 kt
    southwesterlies has been consistently sampled by the FSD VWP from
    1-3 km and this is expected to gradually shift east into this
    evening. RAP-based forecast soundings and observed cloud bases
    suggest initial cells are probably rooted around 750 mb along the
    differential heating zone west of the MCV cloud shield. Nearly all
    guidance has lacked robust convective signal this afternoon, except
    for the 12Z HRW-NSSL. It has a low-probability scenario of a
    supercell developing within this regime and tracking south-southeast
    along the differential heating corridor. The more probable scenario
    is for sporadic attempts at transient updraft rotation, capable of
    producing marginally severe hail and locally strong gusts. These
    threats should remain within a confined corridor at any one time,
    but gradually translate east into early evening.

    ..Grams/Mosier.. 08/14/2025

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!8FptLPtrTERmEUhs41lHtsBKS6xSEg9Q-XIm0WpG5Df2xaxBxemBGCOQAocQx1dvkBMvcCfND= 24WRRZnKekU6yh5j0k$ for graphic product...

    ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...

    LAT...LON 45379593 45769549 45779492 45519447 45129408 44699388
    44189377 43739422 43759513 44189589 44759625 45379593=20

    MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
    MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


    =3D =3D =3D
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